Well, so it seems… I had opted for a pullback - which was seen but nowhere as deep as I thought we’d reach. However, the trend has resumed and that should be good. Having seen dollar gains into the start of the Asian session, the risk will be for a pullback but given the passion for this trend I wonder how deep any correction can be. I suspect a relatively firm correction… Amazingly, the 4-hour price equilibrium clouds managed to support the dollar and we should find the pullback today reach back to the clouds.
In EUR/USD we’re only around 80 points above the 1.0539 low seen on 3rd December last year… Not far below that is the 1.0462 low that was on the 13th March 2015. That highlights the complications and horrendous consolidation that took place…
However, back to today and next week, we clearly still have further to go and therefore enjoy the trend… Hopefully the lower degree structures will not be as complicated as I found this morning – forcing me not only to move down to the 1-minute charts but also into 25 tick-bar charts. Such were the neuroses in the market… (This may seem like “meh, it’s just trending” but it is still vitally important to get those waves right else it all blows back in my face at a later stage…)
Apart from the Majors that seem to have a solid structure, we have EUR/JPY and AUD/USD that are the more complex structures. The cross will likely see a modest sideways consolidation initially and it will be then down to which of USD/JPY and EUR/USD follows-through afterwards. If I have any preference, I feel that EUR/USD has the greater potential for losses compared to gains in USD/JPY.
The Antipodean remains with both 4-hour and hourly momentum pointing lower – there are certainly no real firm reversal indications – and this tends to suggest follow-through lower that could eventually reach below the 0.7301 low…
Best keep watching for dollar bullish reversal indications.