Over the past hour or so, there has been an announcement about the Greek debt situation. I am not going to provide any explanation because I don’t really follow it. I am more concerned about price structure because it tells me a lot (lot, lot) more. The 1.1533 high in EUR/USD could (structurally) complete a correction. It does have an option for a new high but technically hasn’t confirmed losses quite yet. As of now… it ain’t looking that good…
So, this holds implications across a few currency pairs. Perhaps USD/CHF is slightly immune from this but has weakened against the Dollar also, although not by so much. Equally, another puzzling development, irrespective of the Greek situation, GBP/USD made a new high above 1.5226 but below 1.5268. This is rather confusing but has two possible outcomes. Bullish or bearish… Yes, pretty obvious… but has to work within the larger fractal structure and frankly, yesterday’s new high either suggests a break above 1.5268 or continuation of the sideways consolidation that has lasted from the beginning of the year. If the latter, then it can still prove to be a headache being at risk of extended erratic trading.
Indeed, the Aussie is beginning to suggest the same. This needs to be handled with care also…
USD/JPY failed on the upside. The curious case of the missing bar following Monday’s gap lower – that is invisible continues to make the entire situation very unclear. Either we need to see a break below 116.68 to make it irrelevant or produces a minor break below 116.87 – but not below 116.68 – to maintain any chance of a direct recovery. This also holds additional confusion for EUR/JPY. I have been running two possible alternatives here and obviously, how EUR/USD develops is going to make a big impact.
Be aware of the risks today but if EUR/USD begins to lose out too much we may well have another roller coaster ride…