Market Brief
The New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed faster than expected in November from NZD -908 million to -213 million (vs. -575mn exp.), exports remained mostly stable (4.02billion), as imports decreased from 4.94 billion to 4.24 billion. NZD/USD remains offered below its 21-dma & Ichimoku conversion line (0.7775/76). The bias remains slightly negative.
AUD/USD extends weakness to 0.8088 in the continuation of its steady slide toward 80 cents. The sentiment remains AUD-bearish with traders now betting on higher probability RBA rate cuts in 2015 on commodity sell-off and ECB QE. Bids are presumed pre-0.80, light option offers trail below. AUD/NZD consolidates at fresh year lows (1.0477) with further slide presumed.
JPY crosses traded quiet due to Tokyo holidays. USD/JPY stepped gently above 120.00. With Abenomics still in charge post December 14th, the USD/JPY is ready to advance steadily higher. The first target sits at 121.85 (Dec 8th high). EUR/JPY remains well offered below the Ichi base line (147.37) on broad EUR-negative sentiment.
Moody’s lowered Russia’s FX deposit ceiling to Ba1 from Baa2, foreign currency bond ceiling to Baa2 from A3, warned the Russian FX reserves will continue falling in 2015. The ruble unwind cools-off for the moment, there is talk of government forcing the main exporters to sell their excessive USD from business proceeds. In term, the broad direction remains RUB-negative. The support zone is seen at 48.70/50.00 (50-dma / psychological level).
EUR/USD consolidates weakness a stone’s throw above the October-December descending base (1.2184). With expectations of the ECB announcing a full blown QE in January 22nd meeting should keep the EUR-complex under selling pressures. Decent option barriers trail below 1.23 for today expiry. EUR/GBP broke the October-December ascending base, consolidates pre-0.78. Trend and momentum indicators point for deeper downside. Decent option barriers keep the pressure tight at 0.7840/50 zone.
The Cable trades ranged, the MACD will step in the red zone for day close below 1.5557. If GBP/USD holds ground above 1.5573 through the day, the formation of a tweezer top will be confirmed and announce minor bullish reversal before stepping toward fresh lows. Large put expiry waits for activation at 1.56 at today expiry.
The US has a heavy economic calendar today before the year-end holidays. We will be closely monitoring the 3Q GDP third reading and the PCE (inflation index watched by the Fed). Today’s full economic calendar : French November Consumer Spending m/m & y/y, French, Spanish and Swedish November PPI m/m & y/y, Spanish October House Mortgage Approvals and Total Mortgage Lending y/y, Norway October Unemployment Rate, Italian October Retail Sales m/m & y/y, UK November BBA Loans for House Purchases, UK 3Q (Final) GDP and Total Business Investment q/q & y/y, UK 3Q Current Account Balance, UK October Index of Services, Canadian October GDP m/m & y/y, US November Durable Goods Orders, US 3Q (Third) GDP Annualized q/q, Personal Consumption, GDP Price Index, Core PCE q/q, University of Michigan’s December Final Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index,, US November New Home Sales, Personal Income and Spending, PCE Deflator and PCE Core m/m & y/y.
| Today's Calendar | Estimates | Previous | Country / GMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| FR 3Q F GDP QoQ | 0.30% | 0.30% | EUR / 07:45 |
| FR 3Q F GDP YoY | 0.40% | 0.40% | EUR / 07:45 |
| FR Nov Consumer Spending MoM | 0.50% | -0.90% | EUR / 07:45 |
| FR Nov Consumer Spending YoY | -0.70% | -0.20% | EUR / 07:45 |
| FR Nov PPI MoM | - | -0.20% | EUR / 07:45 |
| FR Nov PPI YoY | - | -1.40% | EUR / 07:45 |
| SP Nov PPI MoM | -1.00% | -0.50% | EUR / 08:00 |
| SP Nov PPI YoY | -0.40% | -0.20% | EUR / 08:00 |
| SP Oct Total Mortgage Lending YoY | - | 42.80% | EUR / 08:00 |
| SP Oct House Mortgage Approvals YoY | - | 29.80% | EUR / 08:00 |
| SW Nov PPI MoM | - | 0.20% | SEK / 08:30 |
| SW Nov PPI YoY | - | 2.10% | SEK / 08:30 |
| NO Oct Unemployment Rate AKU | 3.70% | 3.70% | NOK / 09:00 |
| IT Oct Retail Sales MoM | - | -0.10% | EUR / 09:00 |
| IT Oct Retail Sales YoY | - | -0.50% | EUR / 09:00 |
| UK Nov BBA Loans for House Purchase | 36400 | 37076 | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK 3Q F GDP QoQ | 0.70% | 0.70% | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK 3Q F GDP YoY | 3.00% | 3.00% | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK 3Q Current Account Balance | -23.2B | -23.1B | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK Oct Index of Services MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK Oct Index of Services 3M/3M | 0.70% | 0.80% | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK 3Q F Total Business Investment QoQ | -0.70% | -0.70% | GBP / 09:30 |
| UK 3Q F Total Business Investment YoY | 6.30% | 6.30% | GBP / 09:30 |
| CA Oct GDP MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | CAD / 13:30 |
| US Nov Durable Goods Orders | 3.00% | 0.40% | USD / 13:30 |
| CA Oct GDP YoY | - | 2.30% | CAD / 13:30 |
| US Nov Durables Ex Transportation | 1.00% | -0.90% | USD / 13:30 |
| US Nov Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.00% | -1.30% | USD / 13:30 |
| US Nov Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 1.30% | -0.40% | USD / 13:30 |
| US 3Q T GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.30% | 3.90% | USD / 13:30 |
| US 3Q T Personal Consumption | 2.40% | 2.20% | USD / 13:30 |
| US 3Q T GDP Price Index | 1.40% | 1.40% | USD / 13:30 |
| US 3Q T Core PCE QoQ | 1.40% | 1.40% | USD / 13:30 |
| US Dec F Univ. of Michigan Confidence | 93.5 | 93.8 | USD / 14:55 |
| US Dec Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 7 | 4 | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov New Home Sales | 460K | 458K | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov New Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov Personal Income | 0.50% | 0.20% | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov Personal Spending | 0.50% | 0.20% | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov PCE Deflator MoM | -0.10% | 0.10% | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | 1.40% | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | USD / 15:00 |
| US Nov PCE Core YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | USD / 15:00 |
Currency Tech
EURUSD
R 2: 1.2351
R 1: 1.2300
CURRENT: 1.2231
S 1: 1.2217
S 2: 1.2184
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5786
R 1: 1.5682
CURRENT: 1.5582
S 1: 1.5541
S 2: 1.5423
USDJPY
R 2: 121.85
R 1: 121.00
CURRENT: 120.16
S 1: 118.26
S 2: 117.55
USDCHF
R 2: 0.9972
R 1: 0.9850
CURRENT: 0.9839
S 1: 0.9785
S 2: 0.9723