Natural gas futures price after formation of last seasonal peak of $6.468 in February 2014 started a downward journey till February 2016 and formed a bottom at $1.647 on February 1st, 2016. After consolidating during the month of February-March 2016, a beginning of an uptrend move was seen in natural gas futures price till December 28th, 2016 and the height of the move was $3.899 and started to move downward till forming a bottom of $3.101 on January 9th, 2017.
Once again, another uptrend seen from January 9th, 2017 and this time the height of the move was $3.511 on January 17th, 2017 and turned downward from the same day and formed a bottom at $3.006 on February 6th, 2017. Then once again an up move was there till the formation of a high of $3.188 on February 9th, 2017 followed by another down move till the formation of a recent bottom of $3.007 on February 10th, 2017.
On analysis of the movement of natural gas futures price since February 2016 in a weekly chart, I find that an uptrend journey since the formation of a bottom in natural gas price is still intact. Secondly, every next bottom during this uptrend was formed only on this uptrend line.
To analyze the movement of natural gas futures price in a weekly chart, if we draw two lines, keeping the mean point to the bottom formed in February 2016. One line in the upper average direction to join the tops formed and another downward average line joining the bottom formed during this period till date. We find the formation of a triangular formation, which seems to be widening with time. I define this triangular zone as a decisive trading zone for the year 2017.
In this decisive trading zone, an uptrend is clearly visible. Though, the road seems to be too bumpy ahead but surely seems to form a seasonal peak during the year 2017. I have drawn a breakout zone above and a downward trend zone on the both sides of this trading zone.
El Niño's effect on weather may cause some volatile moves ahead, but one thing seems definite- any move crossing on any side out of this decisive trading zone will only decide the direction of natural gas futures price in near time.
I have already defined the possibilities of formation of a seasonal peak in my analysis Is Natural Gas Going To Test A Historical Repetition In 2017? about the formation of seasonal peaks every 3rd year consecutively, no matter the height of the seasonal peak. But one thing was definite, formation has tried to peak every third year e.g. 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and now maybe 2017.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in natural gas. One can create position in natural gas at his/her own risk.