Get 40% Off
💰 Buffett reveals a $6.7B stake in Chubb. Copy the full portfolio for FREE with InvestingPro’s Stock Ideas toolCopy Portfolio

Minimum Gains Give Bulls Reason For Optimism

Published 06/23/2020, 01:08 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US500
-
US2000
-
SPY
-
IWM
-
IXIC
-

Traders had a weekend to stew over Friday's losses and a weak open Monday on global markets could have set a more negative tone. However, this proved not to be the case. 

The S&P staged a small rally from its 20-day MA. The rally hasn't yet undone the 'sell' trigger in the MACD but the sequence over the last five days has mapped a consolidation handle which has the potential to challenge and get past 3,200. 

SPX Daily Chart

The NASDAQ's gains are pressuring against the 'bull trap' but still haven't yet negated it. The MACD trigger 'sell' is still there but other technicals are healthy. A break above 10,100 would attract momentum traders and accelerate these gains—but it needs a catalyst. Although this catalyst may not be an obvious one, e.g. it's unlikely to be a vaccine for COVID or the defeat of Trump.

COMPQ Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 (via iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)) is struggling to catch up with the NASDAQ or S&P. It remains below its 200-day MA but it has a nice handle setup as for the NASDAQ or S&P. Any move above the 200-day MA would likely be low key. As for the aforementioned indices it has a MACD trigger 'sell' to overcome, but it also has to reverse a relative loss 'signal' against the NASDAQ.  

IWM Daily Chart

The indices have been swinging between rally - loss - rally - loss over relatively tight intraday ranges. Monday didn't deliver an answer but it did show a preference to hold gains—whether that's Johnny-come-latelys proping up stocks or low-key buying in preparation for a larger move higher. However, I think a range-bound scenario into the election seems most likely; the COVID-19 pandemic and a weak incumbent president offer too many substantive unknowns to be pushing big gains, but value buyers will always be active. 

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Latest comments

the state of this ***
Good thoughts, but if I read you correctly you imply that Biden defeating Trump would be a positive market catayst when he is anti-big business and will significantly raise corporate taxes. Biden will hurt the stock market even if he begins advancing his lead in the polls, and even if people in general abhor Trump as a person and leader. I don’t see Biden being anything but a negative market catalyst. I’m apolitical, but I sure wish the Dems could’ve found someone who we could vote FOR instead of simply using their candidate to vote AGAINST Trump.
If there is no clear sign of trend, that is sure when MAs are aligned in one direction, there is uncertainty in the market. So better wait and see what big boys will decide. Not a time to risk a penny.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.