McKesson (MCK) Q4 Earnings: Stock Likely To Disappoint

McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on May 4, after the market closes.

McKesson has an impressive track record, having beaten estimates comfortably in all of the last four quarters with an average earnings surprise of 6.91%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Influencing This Quarter

McKesson is a major player in the pharmaceutical and medical supplies distribution market. The company’s distribution solutions segment recorded steady growth on the back of robust performance at the U.S. Pharmaceutical business over the last few quarters.

Concurrent with the fiscal third-quarter call, McKesson affirmed its guidance for fiscal 2016 (ending Mar 31, 2016), which was originally provided on Jan 11. Generic pricing trends are projected to remain weak in the second half of the year. Generic pricing and customer transitions are anticipated to adversely impact fiscal 2017 results. The ongoing customer consolidation is also expected to impact its business.

Meanwhile, McKesson has been actively pursuing deals and acquisitions to drive growth. After acquiring Celesio in 2014, the company recently took over Vantage Oncology and Biologics Inc. to further strengthen its specialty pharmaceutical distribution scale and broaden its oncology-focused pharmacy offerings, and solutions for manufacturers and payers. Moreover, the recently announced acquisition of Rexall Health will strengthen McKesson's pharmaceutical supply chain in Canada. Furthermore, the buyout of Sainsbury’s pharmacies will add 281 new pharmacies to the Lloyd’s Pharmacy brand in the UK.

In Mar 2016, the company announced a restructuring plan to lower its operating costs. Per the plan, the company will reduce its workforce and realign its business process initiatives in three years. McKesson expects to record charges (pre-tax) of approximately $300 million to $330 million as a result of the restructuring plan. Of these expenses, approximately $250–$275 million will be incurred in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016, while the remainder will be recognized by the end of fiscal 2019. Majority of these charges will comprise severance and employee-related costs, while remaining expenses will be on account of exit-related costs, asset impairment and accelerated depreciation.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that McKesson is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates, which is not the case here.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -20.81%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is $2.36, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $2.98.

Zacks Rank: McKesson carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). As it is, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision momentum.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:JAZZ) has an Earnings ESP of +4.58% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 10.

Impax Laboratories Inc. (NASDAQ:IPXL) has an Earnings ESP of +8.89% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 10.

Intrexon Corporation (NYSE:XON) has an Earnings ESP of +17.39% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 10.