GRAIN COMMENTS:MAR CORN:
Stops were reached last Friday. Corn has continued to rally and its next resistance is around 650. That is slightly higher than where the 100 day ma intersects. Long term corn is now over the 20 day ma on the weekly. However, it has done this before followed without follow through. Just watching. Closed 630 1/4, up 10 1/4.
Position: Short 596 (1.18). Exit 612 (1.20). Loss regular size contract $855. Loss mini contract $215. Both include comm/fees.
MAR WHEAT: It will run into resistance around 650 - the same area as corn on the daily chart. Long term this week's action has been positive for the weekly chart. Wheat is back over the 20 and 150 day ma on it. Again it has done this before only to be slapped down by the 100 day ma on that chart. Right now that average intersects at 660 on the weekly chart. But wheat is forming a 1,2,3 bottom formation on that chart. This rally could have much more follow through. Closed 633 1/2, up 13 3/4.
MAR SOYBEANS: On the daily chart they rallied to the 100 day ma and stopped. On the weekly chart they are triggering a buy from last week's inside bar. They are now over both the 100 and 20 day ma on that chart too. This is encouraging. On the monthly they just reached to 20 day ma and stopped. Based on what is going on in the grains, I suspect the bean rally isn't over with yet. Closed 1220, up 24.
MAR MEAL: It is the most aggressive of the bean complex. It closed over the 100 day ma yesterday with further follow through today. It's weekly is triggering a buy from last week's inside bar. It is now pushing over both the 100 & 150 day ma on that chart. If it accomplishes that task it should drag beans with it. But unless bean oil gets its act together and follows through, the meal and bean rally will fizzle eventually fizzle out. Closed 323.50, up 2.50.
MAR BEAN OIL:On the daily chart it pushed up against the 20 day ma both yesterday and today. It does have a buy signal from yesterday but has stalled out. Unlike the rest of the bean complex, it has been over the 100 day ma on the weekly for some time. In fact, it never failed it. That is positive. Closed 51.35, down 7.
MEAT COMMENTS:
APR HOGS: Switching to April. They rallied near to the high of the previous rally today and failed - forming a key reversal top to the rally on the daily chart. However, they have formed a partial 1,2,3 bottom formation on the that chart. To confirm it all they need to do is take out the Dec. 28 high of 89.50. Today's high 89.25. On their weekly they continue to be held back by the 20 day ma. Closed
APR CATTLE: Switching to April. On November 4 cattle formed a double top on the daily chart at 129.75. They then sold off to 121.02. Today's high 129.45 is challenging that. Two days ago they had formed a key reversal top in this area. It was negated today. The current wave up on the daily chart has not yet met projections: 130.75. This current rally has changed the long term charts: the sell on the monthly and weekly charts have been negated. The monthly no longer suggests a top formation as that top has been taken out. It now appears as though they could be starting a new wave up with potential projections to 137.00. Closed
SOFTS COMMENTS:
MAR COTTON: I tried to buy it today. It did not reach my price. Instead it sold off and is back to testing the 100 day ma. Its attempt to get over the 150 day ma failed and cotton now has a double top. This is not good technically. It appears there could be more to this sell-off. Closed 98.18, down 1.19.
MAR ORANGE JUICE: It gapped up yesterday in its enthusiasm and filled that gap today. It has surpassed its 2007 high and what we're seeing now could be the "blow off." It's a good time to be buying puts. Closed 218.00, down 1.95.
MAR COFFEE: Its attempt to set up a rally earlier this week failed. It sold off yesterday and is testing the low area formed on Jan. 6. As of yesterday it is back under the 20 day ma. That is negative. The number to watch now is 216.60 - the low on Jan. 6. If it takes that out, it will most likely test the contract low of 212.35. As mentioned before, taking that out, would push coffee to 200.00. Long term the situation is negative and, most likely, affecting the daily action. The monthly continues to have a sell and is back under the 20 day ma. It violated that average for the first time since the whole up move last month. That is negative. To add fuel to the flame, the weekly is triggering a sell this week. So far on the weekly it has been holding at the 100 day ma. The number to watch is 215.90. Taking that out would violate the 100 day ma. Another negative. Coffee long term continues to suggest a 200.00 target. Closed 220.45, up 1.00.
MAR COCOA: It took off today and took out the Jan. 11 high of 23.88. The new high 24.25 made today. Such action changed the long term charts. On the monthly chart, cocoa is back over the 100 day ma. The weekly chart is triggering a buy from last week's inside bar. The next major resistance is up at 26.00. Closed 24.13, up 1.44.
MAR SUGAR:I took profit last Friday. It did gradually rally to test the 100 day ma both yesterday and today. It then backed off. If it could test 24.25 that could be a buy area. It has a lot of consolidation and support under that level. Closed 24.89, down 7.
Position: Long 24.42 (1.19). Exit 24.65 (1.20). Profit 202.60 (-comm/fees).
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: It has been attempting to overcome the 150 day ma for the last four trading days. So far it has been doing a good job. Only one day did it close under it. Today was an inside day on the daily chart. If it takes out 381.95, it will be triggering a buy. Both long term charts have buys and the weekly is over the 100 day ma. It has a lot of positives and is strongly suggesting a rally to 400.00 at least. Closed 380.75, up .90.
FEB MINI GOLD: It tested the 150 day ma on the daily chart yesterday and backed off of it today. On the weekly it is butting up against the 20 day ma. Based on the weekly, has this rally been the set up for a third wave down? The previous rally had more to it. Will this one? On the daily chart it is in price resistance too. Just watching. Closed 1664.50, down 13.80.
MAR MINI SILVER: It reached price resistance in the 32.700 area and has started to sell off. It also formed an inside day on the daily chart. If it takes out 31.855 tomorrow, it will be triggering a preliminary sell signal. The monthly continues to have a sell signal and on the weekly it is starting to sell off under the 20 day ma again. It may correct from here. Closed 3197.50, down 29.500.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
MAR MINI CRUDE OIL: How confusing. On the daily chart it is back under the 20 day ma as of Friday. However it held in support and formed a strong key reversal bottom yesterday. That is positive. Today was an inside day. If it takes out 100.18 tomorrow it will be triggering a preliminary buy. If it takes out 98.25, it will be triggering a preliminary sell that could challenge the key reversal bottom. Long term the monthly is triggering a preliminary buy this month and has a previous buy. That is positive and the monthly tends to be the leader. Of course, not to make it easy, the weekly is triggering a preliminary sell this week. The one blemish in the mix. Closed 98.95, down 63.
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: How sneaky can you get? After triggering a buy yesterday on the daily chart, it quickly negated it today and literally collapsed down to 128.50 on the daily chart. The long term charts are in conflict. The monthly triggered a preliminary buy this month. The weekly is triggering a sell and is back under the 20 day. The macd on both leave a lot to be desired!!! I would have to say that the yen is going through a "transition." Just looking at the charts it sure suggests more sell-off. Closed 128.71, down 1.23.
MAR SWISS FRANC: Today's buy signal is the second for this market in about a week. It is trying to get over 108.00 and closing over that would be positive. The long term charts are not showing much yet. Closed 107.77, down 14.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: After failing to hold the 20 day ma it has continued to follow through in its sell-off. Today it formed an inside day on some interim support that held the market when it sold off in early January. The long term charts have done nothing to turn negative. It is also at the low end of the Bollinger band and that could help support the market too. Bear in mind, if the dollar follows its previous pattern when it failed the 20 day ma in October, there should be more to this sell-off one way or another. Just watching. Closed 80.026, up .081.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: I tried to buy it today. It did reach my price at night but not again during the day session. It has closed over the 130.00 support for the second day in a row. Closed 130.25, up 5.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: The tedium with this position is beyond belief. Today was an inside day. I would raise stops from 98.10 up to 98.44. Closed 98.89, down 19.
Position: Long 99.13 (1.19).
Projection: 99.60.
MAR AUSSIE: The aussie is in resistance and struggling on the daily. But just looking at the monthly chart, this market sure looks like it is going higher. It has an extremely aggressive key reversal bottom and is triggering a buy this month. If there is follow through, it could test 106.75 near term. Closed 104.21, down 46.
MAR EMINI: I took profit on Friday. It rallied to 1318.25 yesterday. Today it continues to struggle in the same area. The main positive is that it is over 1300.00. And the monthly chart is extremely positive. Based on that alone, it looks headed to 1400.00. Closed 1311.50, up .50.
Position: Long 1278.75 (2.6). Exit 1304.75 (1.20). Profit 307.50 (-comm/fees).
DEC 10 YEAR NOTES: They sold off to the late Dec. low and are holding. They have a lot of support at this level going back to early November. They are still range bound. Closed 130.040, up .450.