Market Update

 

Sell 596 stop.  Protective stop 612.  Potential projection 550.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart corn is back under the 20 day ma.  That is negative.
2.  On the weekly chart corn failed to hold its attempt to get over the 20 day ma last week.  That is negative.
3.  All three macd's are negative.
4.  On the daily chart the attempt to rally over the 100 day ma last week failed and it then sold off under the 20 day ma as well.
5.  The daily chart triggered a sell last Friday.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
 
Sell March mini beans. 

Sell 1156 stop.  Protective stop 1188.  Potential projection 1100.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart beans failed the 20 day ma in September.  All attempts to get back over it since have failed.  That is negative.
2.  The monthly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3.  On the weekly chart the attempt to get back over 20 day ma last week failed.  It is now back under that and the 100 day ma.
4.  On the daily chart beans failed the 20 day ma last Thursday.  An attempt to get back over it on Friday failed.
5.  On the daily chart it appears as though beans could be starting a third wave down.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
 
Buy March 10 year notes. 

Buy 131.250 stop.  Protective stop 131.050.  Potential projection 132.150.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart is triggering a preliminary buy signal this month.
2.  The weekly chart has two previous buy signals that are still intact.
3.  On the weekly chart notes closed over the 131.000 resistance last week and is trading above it so far this week.
4.  On the daily chart, notes are back over the uptrend formed since the October low.
5.  The daily chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
 
GRAIN COMMENTS: 

MAR CORN:   On the monthly chart corn is under the 20 day ma again.  However, both the weekly and the daily are holding at the major 600 support.  This market has been sensitive to this level since it first got over it in 2008.  When it first reached it again in the rally of 2010 it backed off aggressively the first time.  The next month it blew right over it.  This is the fifth month that it has been directly testing that level.  Each time it goes under 600 but somehow manages to get back over it.  It has put in a lot of work at that level over the months but hasn't gone any where.  My point being if it fails now, technically we could easily see corn at 500.  This is why:  In 2008 when it first got over 600, within a couple of months it was back under it and sold off easily to 300.  Since it got over it in 2010, corn has consolidated above that level up to the present.  So, any failure now has the "technical weight" of all that consolidation since 2010 above it to push it down to 500 at least.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 604, up 4 1/2.

MAR MINI WHEAT:  It is doing the same thing as corn - trying to hold the 600 support.  An inside day on the daily triggered a buy today on the daily chart.  The monthly chart has a buy while the weekly has a sell.  What is more negative is that on the weekly chart it is under all three moving averages.  Just watching.  Closed 604 3/4, up 2 1/2.

MAR MINI BEANS:  Last week's "free fall" put beans back under the 20 day ma on the daily chart.  A rally attempt on Friday failed to get them back over it as it stopped the rally.  The sell-off reached the 1150 support on the daily chart last week and held.  Is that enough to get another rally attempt from this level?  Long term the situation is not promising.  The monthly has an outstanding sell signal.  On the weekly they failed both the 20 and 100 day ma last week.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 1183 1/2, up 25 1/4.
 
MAR MEAL:  It tested the 300.00 support level during last week's sell-off.  An inside day on Friday triggered a buy today.  It also closed back over the 20 day ma.  Assuming a rally can follow through, it will reach heavy resistance long term around 324.00.  Closed 310.50, up 9.00.
 
MAR BEAN OIL:  Last week's sell-off held at the 50.00 support.  The monthly is triggering a preliminary buy this month but it is now back under the 20 day ma.  The weekly isn't showing much.  Just watching.  Closed 50.77, up .48.

MEAT COMMENTS:
 
FEB HOGS:  Stops were reached on Friday.  They rallied to the high end of their range around 86.32 and have started to sell off.  The rally on Friday took them over the down trend line formed since the late November high.  They persist in having a sell on the monthly but are holding at the uptrend formed since the 2009 low.  Just watching for now.  Closed 85.77, up .17.
Position:  Short 83.60 (1.9).  Exit 84.60.  Loss $455 (+comm/fees.)

FEB CATTLE:  I tried to short them but they rallied instead and the sell stop was not reached.  That rally pushed them back over both the 100 and 150 day ma on the daily chart.  That is positive.  They gapped up today to 123.75 and stopped.  That is previous resistance.  Long term the monthly continues to have a sell signal.  That would be negated if 125.37 were taken out.  The major resistance is at 125.00 currently on the weekly chart.  Just watching.  Closed 123.52, up 1.05.

SOFTS:
 
MAR COTTON:  Another inside day triggered a buy today.  Cotton got over the 100 day ma but was stopped by the 150 day ma.  That intersected at approximately 99.50 on the daily chart.  Once cotton reaches 100.00 or a little higher, it will run into heavy resistance formed Oct. and Nov.  Long term cotton is trying to get over both he 20 and 150 day ma on the weekly.  It is close to accomplishing that.  Either way, getting over the 100.00 resistance is key.  Closed 98.19, up 2.72.
 
MAR ORANGE JUICE:  Friday it rallied from 178.10 up to 198.10.  Pretty volatile.  Today was an inside day.  This market has been too volatile to mess with.  Just watching the entertainment!  Closed 184.35, down .25.
 
MAR COFFEE:  In my last report I suggested that we may have seen the rally.  Such appears to be the case.  It sold off on Friday and today - making a low today at 221.10.  It is back under the descending triangle.  The rally to test that breakout was more extensive than normal but the key now is to see if it gets back under 220.00.  Closed 225.15, down .10.
 
MAR COCOA:  I tried to short it on Friday but it got away from me.  It had gapped down.  There has not been much follow through.  Today's low 22.30.  Just watching.  Closed 22.70, up 1.

MAR SUGAR:  The daily chart triggered a buy today.  But, as usual, when it reached the high end of its current range, it stopped.  Nothing has changed long term.  It is still trading under its uptrend since the May 2010 low.  This is the third month.  And for weeks it has been stuck between the 150 and 100 day ma on the weekly chart. This has gone on since November 21!  When sugar decides to break out, it should be a good one.  Closed 23.86, up 2.
 
METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:

MAR COPPER:  My earlier projection was 375.00.  It reached 375.90 today.  It is this same area that stopped copper in October and produced a sell-off to 325.00.  On the weekly chart it reached the 100 day ma today.  It was this same average in October on the weekly chart that stopped the rally.  The one difference is that copper had not established the support under itself that it has this time.  It could make a difference.  The weekly is also triggering a preliminary buy this week.  The monthly triggered a buy last month.  Near term copper looks as though it could reach for 400.00.  I'm sure it will not be an easy process.  Closed 372.95, up 9.25.
 
FEB MINI GOLD:  It closed over 1650.00 today.  That is positive.  It is also back over the 10 day ma on the monthly chart.  As you recall it had been holding that average during all sell-offs since 2008.  It closed under it last month for the first time.  It is now trying to get back over it.  If gold can continue to follow through, it could reach for 1700.00.  Closed 1655.60, up 24.80.
 
MAR MINI SILVER:  It closed back over 30.000 today.  It has been "working around" this level since early last week.  Closing over it is positive.  On the monthly chart it has the 20 day ma to battle with.  That intersects at 30.950 currently so getting over that on a closing basis would be positive.  The tough part about silver is that it is in a long term downtrend since the May 2011 high.  So if this rally is a set up for another wave down, it will start hitting resistance around 32.500.  Closed 30.135, up .613.
 
MAR MINI CRUDE OIL:  I bought it today.  After the pit closed it rallied to 101.200.  Getting back over 100.00 and the 20 day ma is positive.  Keep stops at 98.775.  Closed 100.875, up 1.99.
Position:  Long 100.600 (1.17).
Projection 104.750.
 
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
 
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:  It persists in hold at the 100 day ma on the daily chart.  It sold off under it on Friday but did close over it.  It rallied to 130.75 today.  On Jan. 3 it reached 130.70 before selling off.  It also triggered a buy from Friday's outside day.  Just watching.  Closed 130.25, up 21.
 
MAR SWISS FRANC:  It is trying to stabilize around 104.50.  What it really needs to do is get over the 20 day ma.  It has dominated this market for some time and continues to do so.  Right now it would have to close over 106.41 and then some to break that pattern.  The monthly still is very negative but the weekly does suggest a potential near term rally as it is making every effort to hold about 105.00 and the 100 day ma.  It formed an inside day today but it would require too much risk to play.  Closed 105.32, up .38.
 
MAR DOLLAR INDEX:  An inside day on Monday triggered a sell today.  It held at 81.000.  On the monthly chart it is very close to the 100 day ma and that seems to have slowed it up.  That intersects at 82.300 and the high so far on the monthly is 82.040.  Breaking over that average and closing over it, would be significant.  On the monthly chart it has never been able to do that since it failed that average in early 2003.  It is already over it on the weekly chart and then some.  The last time it did so with follow through was in Feb. 2010 and it then took off to 89.100.  I suspect the dollar is at a key point.  Is it a coincidence that it occurred in February?  Closed 81.429, down .362.
 
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:  Numerous attempts last week and again this week to get over 128.00 continue to fail.  I pointed out that the dollar needs to get over the 100 day ma on the monthly.  Well, the eurocurrency failed that average last month with follow through again this month.  It made a new contract low on Friday and tried to hold that low today.  Just watching.  Closed 127.24, up .52.
 
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR:  It persists in trying to break out of the pennant to the upside.  It closed above it today.  If it can follow through it could rally to 100.00.  Just watching.  Closed 98.30, up 75.
 
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:  Today's rally was the strongest attempt to hold over 102.00.  It will reach resistance at 103.00.  It had broken out of a pennant to the upside and follow through could bring it to 105.00.  On the monthly chart it has started to trigger a preliminary buy this month.  Closed 103.00, up .78.
 
MAR E-MINI S&P:  I had raised the stop again and it was reached on Friday.  I tried again today to buy it.  I had to pay up a bit.  The key now is to get over 1300.00.  Keep stops at 1281.00.  Closed 1289.25, up .25.
Position:  Long 1278.75 (1.6).  Exit 1279.00.  Loss $42.50 (-comm/fees),
Position:  Long 1297.50 (1.17).
 
MAR 10 YR. NOTES:  They have been stuck in a range and finally broke out of it to the upside on Friday.  Today's low tested that break out.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 131.190, up .015.