MAR CORN:
Whatever was behind corn rallying over 9 cents today is beyond me. Technically the only explanation is that it reached the 20 day ma on both the weekly and monthly plus the 625 support on the daily chart. After closing back under the 100 day ma yesterday, today's rally brought it back over it. Just watching. Closed 636 1/4, up 9 1/4.
MAR WHEAT: It is trying to hold the 625 support on the daily chart but today's minor rally could not even bring it back over either the 20 or 100 day ma that it failed last Friday. Closed 628 3/4, up 2 3/4.
MAR SOYBEANS: On the monthly they are up against the 20 day ma. Since they failed it in October, that average has put a top in the market every month since. We'll see if they can finally get over it this time around. If so, the potential 1300 projection I mentioned is feasible. Closed 1258 1/4, down 2 3/4.
MAR MEAL: On the weekly chart it has attempted to get over the 100 & 150 day ma for four weeks. This week has made the most gain. The weekly has two buy signals too and that is positive. But the monthly and daily chart are in resistance. On the daily chart meal has reached the resistance point established in October. What ensued was a major sell-off. That high was 335.10. Yesterday's high 334.80. Closed 330.80, down 2.00.
MAR BEAN OIL: It is still struggling at the resistance level on the daily chart. But today's sell-off did hold at the 52.50 support. If it can ever break out from this level, it has a huge base under it for a good rally. Closed 53.05, down .30.
MEAT COMMENTS:
APR HOGS: They triggered a buy on Wed. I covered them today for two reasons. They stalled at the same resistance area that stopped the market in early February. They have sufficient base under them so that they could have rallied over it. They didn't. The other reason is that the markets are not very trustworthy of late, to say the least, and I decided to take the money and run. Closed 90.05, up 1.15.
Position: Long 89.25 (2.15). Exit 90.25 (2.16). Profit $345.
APR CATTLE: They formed a key reversal top on the daily chart yesterday but quickly negated it today. They also established a new contract high at 130.27. The previous high 129.75 on the daily. This is also a new move on the monthly and further confirming potentially higher prices. Closed 129.65, up .75.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
MAY COTTON:
It triggered a buy on Wednesday, rallied to 94.57 and promptly fizzled out. Today's low 92.65. The buy is still intact so possibly it will follow through yet. Closed 93.71, up .23.
Position: Long 93.15 (2.15).
Projection: 95.85.
MAY ORANGE JUICE: I had mentioned that it was possibly oversold. It appears that was the case as yesterday it rallied to 187.20. It also formed a double bottom yesterday. Today was an inside day. I suspect there could be more to this rally. Just watching. Closed 178.90, down .10.
MAY COFFEE: My repeated comments over the months that the market suggested projections to 200.00 finally occurred today. The low 197.80. It may try to stablize at 200.00 but I suspect it will eventually go lower. Closed 201.20, down 1.20.
MAY COCOA: Since it triggered a buy on Tuesday (I wish I had suggested the trade!), it has made a new high each day. It got over the 20 day ma yesterday on the daily chart and is now up against the 100 day ma. On the weekly it is clearly over the downtrend formed since late August. However, it did so in late January and then sold off. We'll see. Closed 24.05, up .16.
MAY SUGAR:
It triggered a buy today and rallied to 23.91. It needs to get over 24.00. That is where the 100 day ma intersects. So far that has stopped rallies. Keep stops at 23.15. Closed 23.73, up .16.
Position: Long 23.75 (2.16).
Projection: 24.85.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: The sell-off did not hold the 375.00 support area. It sold off to 372.75 but did rally to close back over that support. Long term the charts suggest more sell-off. Just watching. Closed 379.10, down 1.08.
APR MINI GOLD:
I tried to short it twice this week. The price was not reached. Today it sold off to the low made on Feb. 10 and snapped back aggressively. It is also back over the 20 day ma. The next couple of days should give us a better idea of its direction.
MAR MINI SILVER: I lowered the stop this morning since it was finally showing a profit to breakeven (33.595). We'll see! Closed 33.370, down 38.
Position: Short 33.595 (2.10).
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
APR MINI CRUDE OIL: The new high today is 103.10. My earlier projection to 107.50 is a possibility. The only thing holding this market up is the Iran situation. If it were not for that, crude oil will be selling off aggressively to adjust to the drop in demand. Closed 102.64, up .50.
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: Another new low today at 126.66. If it takes out 125.82 that could confirm a major top. And going under 125.00 would be very negative - suggesting a sell-off to 122.50 area. Closed 126.75, down .70.
MAR SWISS FRANC: This market still suggests a bottom on the daily chart. It is attempting to hold 108.00. Getting back over 109.50 would be very positive on the daily chart. Watching closely to buy. Closed 108.88, up .61.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: After rallying over the 20 day ma it formed an aggressive key reversal top today. The low stopped at and held at that average. The next few days will be critical to determine if a trend change has occurred. Closed 79.455, down .328.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: Its key reversal bottom today was impressive. It closed back over the 20 day ma as well. The next few days could be critical. Closed 131.41, up .78.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a buy yesterday. It sold off to 99.41 today, reaching the stop. It then rallied to form a key reversal bottom. Watching closely. Closed 100.34, up .34.
Position: Long 100.26 (2.15). Exit 99.65 (2.16). Loss $665 (+comm/fees).
MAR AUSSIE: It continues to suggest higher prices and a possible test of the 110.00. It held at important support today as it consolidates. It also held at the 20 day ma that it has never violated since Dec. 30. Closed 107.22, up 76.
MAR EMINI: It formed a key reversal top yesterday. It formed a key reversal bottom today. It will not take but a few ticks to negate that key reversal bottom. As mentioned before, it is in major resistance territory going back to last May. It is overdue for a good correction. Closed 1354.75, up 12.40.
DEC 10 YEAR NOTES: After attempting to get over the 20 day ma on the daily chart it failed today. But every time it sells off under that average, it is short lived. Just watching. Closed 130.315, down .190.