Market Overview

All quiet in Frankfurt for nowMuch like a distant uncle’s birthday, the European Central Bank meeting this month has crept up on us, although little is really expected in the latest policy...

No changes in policy are expected from the European Central Bank The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index is on track to tick higher in July Is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index ready to...

The European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its first monetary policy verdict after the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. At his press conference, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi is...

The oil market on Wednesday saw an increase in volatility. Oil dropped in the second half of the day to $45.9 per barrel of Brent; a minimum since the beginning of May. Later on, however, support for...

All eyes on Japan this morning with talk of a ¥20 trillion stimulus package through a supplementary budget. Recent press has been centred on a ¥10 trillion package and if true would clearly be...

Today, the market will focus on the ECB meeting (rate announcement 13:45 CEST, press conference 14:30 CEST). We do not expect it to ease monetary policy before the September meeting but expect a...

Market BriefReserve Bank of New Zealand released an economic update on Thursday. The statement was very dovish and clearly set the stage for a rate cut in August. For the kiwi, it was the straw that...

New Zealand dollar tumbles broadly today as RBNZ indicated that further policy will be needed, paving the way for another rate cut in August. Swaps data is pricing in 90% of a cut in OCR at the...

Summary: Since February, US equities have risen nearly 20%. Equities outside the US have risen 12%. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers' cash in...

Retest Is One Of Many ScenariosThe big picture still looks good relative to the S&P 500’s breakout from a multiple-year consolidation pattern (see below). In terms of common action after...

In today's DeCarley Perspective we noted the fact that the VIX is trading at historically depressed levels. Specifically, VIX futures near 15.00 and the cash market VIX near 11.00 is a relatively rare...

Since the 2008 crisis, PIIGS’ financial problems are getting worse. I want to note that the banking sector is the one with the biggest risk of insolvency. During recent months I wrote about the...

The chart looks at an asset's price pattern over the past 30-years. A potential inflection point is in play at (1) above. In my humble opinion, this probably is not a head-&-shoulders...

Retail sales rose 0.6 percent in June, while inflation increased 0.2 percent. What does it imply for the Fed policy and the gold market?Sales at U.S. retailers increased 0.6 percent last month,...