Continuing to beat expectations
La Doria (MILAN:LDO) has reported yet another strong set of results despite the tough economic and trading environment in its markets, and the updated three-year plan represents a further upgrade to forecasts. Despite the very strong run in the share price, we still calculate c 17% upside on our DCF analysis. As a result of the FY results, we have upgraded our earnings forecasts for 2015 by c 27% as we have incorporated the recent acquisition of Pa.fi.al. In underlying terms, we have upgraded our forecasts by c 7%.
Strong full-year results, forecasts upgraded
EBITDA came in at €59.9m, a 7% beat versus our forecast, and 15% above the company’s own target. This implies an even greater level of outperformance for Q4, with EBITDA beating our forecast by 32%. Lower depreciation, interest and tax charges resulted in all other P&L metrics beating both our forecasts and company targets. We have upgraded our net profit forecasts for 2015-16 by c 27% and rolled forwards our model to 2017; our profit forecasts are broadly in line with the company targets, which in recent years have proved to be conservative.
New three-year plan adds confidence
Together with the full-year results, La Doria has published a new rolling three-year strategic and financial plan. The strategic objectives remain broadly unchanged: the recent acquisition of Pa.fi.al fits perfectly and should accelerate progress with several of the strategic objectives. There is a new explicit strategic objective to grow the ready-made sauces business, which stems naturally from the acquisition. The financial targets represent an upgrade vis-à-vis the previous three-year rolling plan, given the earnings accretion provided by Pa.fi.al.
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