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Key Fundamental Forex Events And Forecasts

ByJay Hawk
Published 02/11/2014, 06:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of February 10th–February 14th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, February 9th

  • 11:50pm JPY Current Account (-0.06T expected, > good for currency)

Monday, February 10th

  • 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10th-14th USD Mortgage Delinquencies (last 6.41% expected, < good for currency)
  • 5:50pm CAD Governing Council Member Murray speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, February 11th

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last 0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence (last 6 expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD HPI (3.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD Home Loans (0.9% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (24.2B expected)
  • Tentative CNY New Loans (last 483B expected)
  • 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Plosser speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen testifies (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings (4.04M expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00pm CAD Annual Budget Release (< good for currency)
  • 11:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last -1.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders (-3.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
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Wednesday, February 12th

  • 8:15am CHF CPI (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR Industrial Production (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:30am GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 10:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last 0.4M expected, > good for currency)
  • 6:01pm USD 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 3.01 percent with a 2.7 bid to cover ratio expected, < yield and >ratio good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance (-28.2B expected, < good for currency)
  • 9:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 56.4 expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, February 13th

  • 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations (last 2.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD Employment Change (15.3K expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.9% expected, < good for currency)
  • 1:25am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:15am CHF PPI (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction (< yield and > ratio good for currency)
  • 10:05am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD NHPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.0% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (331K expected, < good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Fed Chairperson Yellen testifies (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Business Inventories (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
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Friday, February 14th

  • 1:30am CNY CPI (2.4% expected)
  • 1:30am CNY PPI (-1.6% expected)
  • 6:30am EUR French Preliminary GDP (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00am EUR German Preliminary GDP (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:45am EUR French Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR Italian Preliminary GDP (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR Flash GDP (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Import Prices (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate (79.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:15pm USD Industrial Production (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (80.6 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3645/50, 1.3664, 1.3686, 1.3693/99, 1.3703/10, 1.3716, 1.3739, 1.3795/98, 1.3810/18, 1.3832/36, 1.3892, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above: 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.3621/31, 1.3602/14, 1.3597, 1.3546/81, 1.3538, 1.3507/24, 1.3489/1.3504, 1.3476/82, 1.3451, 1.3441, 1.3433/34, 1.3416, 1.3398/1.3409, 1.3376/89, 1.3344/53, 1.3318/24, 1.3305/08, 1.3294/99, 1.3222/42, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65, 1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and 1.3047.
Below: 1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55. 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041 and 1.1938.

USD/JPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 102.49/52, 102.57/64, 102.76, 102.93, 103.30, 103.37/43, 103.73, 103.82, 103.91, 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.
Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.
Support:
Initial: 102.14, 101.91/99, 101.83, 101.62, 101.52, 101.43, 101.22/25, 101.13/14, 100.85/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22 and100.00.
Below: 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.0593.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

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GBP/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.6417/18, 1.6441, 1.6458/64, 1.6484, 1.6516, 1.6576/77, 1.6592, 1.6617, 1.6624, 1.6667, 1.6745, 1.6802 and 1.6874.
Above: 1.6909, and 1.7042/47.
Support:
Initial: 1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8951/57, 0.896.7/69, 0.8981/87, 0.8997/0.9008, 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9047, 0.9054/57, 0.9064, 0.9072, 0.9112/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9303, 0.9214/23, 0.9232, 0.9268, 0.9279/86, 0.9291, 0.9304, 0.9317/25, 0.9343/64, 0.9383/86, 0.9391/98, 0.9404, 0.9420, 0.9428/33, 0.9447, 0.9457 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.8931/32, 0.8918, 0.8912, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.1040/50, 1.1102, 1.1120/32, 1.1172 and 1.1223.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.
Support:
Initial: 1.0982/90, 1.0962/66, 1.0945, 1.0928, 1.0852, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/07, 1.0676/79, 1.0668/76, 1.0659/60, 1.0646/56, 1.0621/27, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

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NZD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8295, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/53, 0.8359/65, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8425/47, 0.8453/59, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89, 0.8504/08, 0.8523, 0.8532, 0.8542, 0.8561, 0.8571 and 0.8584.
Above: 0.8605, 0.8641, 0.8671/74, 0.8764 and 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8285/87, 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8250, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.

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