The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence does a good job of picking up trends in the jobs market. I particularly like to monitor the “jobs plentiful” response rate. It rose to 12.7% in January, the highest since August 2008. The “jobs are hard to get” response fell to 32.6%, the lowest since September 2008. The difference between the two is highly correlated with the “present situation” component of the Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to a new cyclical high in January.
We all know that the drop in the unemployment rate since 2010 has been partly attributable to a decline in the labor force participation rate. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate remains very highly correlated with the “jobs hard to get” response. The latter suggests that that jobless rate continued to fall in January from December’s 6.7% reading.
We all know that the drop in the unemployment rate since 2010 has been partly attributable to a decline in the labor force participation rate. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate remains very highly correlated with the “jobs hard to get” response. The latter suggests that that jobless rate continued to fall in January from December’s 6.7% reading.
