The FIFA World Cup 2014 will begin this week. The defending champions, iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (ARCA:EWP) in my opinion have little to win, yet much to lose.
This is why...
You see, four years ago when Spain won the World Cup, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF had come into a major support level on the charts, while making a significant higher low at $29,85 in the monthly chart. Shortly after the nation's team was crowned World Champion of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF rose for nearly a year to a high of $45.80. Three years later, and after a major down draft on this ETF, price is interestingly enough came right back into that level.
Unlike the last time the World Cup was on, the chart of the Spain ETF is telling me that it will upset many investors this time around, as well as millions of soccer fans from this nation. At this time, looking at the monthly chart once again, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWP) seems to be putting in a lower low, after rallying from a lower low put in place two years ago at $19.73.
The EWP is currently trading between two major levels of resistance; the first level is $44.11 and the second is $44.94. I do not expect the upper level to be broken, and the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF should start to pull back as early as June, perhaps accelerating to the downside on July as the defending champions lose in an upset.
The level from where the defending champions can bounce back, will not occur until the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF reach the $34.94 level. At that price you can own this ETF for a multi-week bounce. However, do not fall in love with it as the larger time frame is telling us that the defending champions do not have a great shot at winning another World Cup and the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF could in fact make yet another lower low.
BY Kiliam Lopez