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Could This Be A Dead Cat Bounce?

Published 12/08/2021, 12:04 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Markets made an attempt to bounce after a few days of consolidation. They started with a gap higher and lead indices were able to build on this move, but a one day bounce does not a recovery make. 

The Russell 2000 (via IWM) is the underperforming index, and while it did gain over 2% it stalled at its 200-day MA. Volume was well down on previous selling, reflecting a lack of conviction on the part of buyers. Technicals have been negative for a long while and there wasn't much of an improvement on Tuesday.

IWM Daily Chart

The NASDAQ returned above its 50-day MA with a bullish cross in On-Balance-Volume despite not ranking as accumulation. I have redrawn a rising channel using the September and December swing lows as trend anchors.

COMPQ Daily Chart

Likewise, the S&P is also running in an upward channel which I have redrawn as done for the NASDAQ. As with the NASDAQ, there was a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume but no accumulation for Tuesday's volume.  Unlike the NASDAQ, the index was able to initiate a bounce from the mid-line of stochastics.

SPX Daily Chart

For today, we will want to see some further upside or at least a consolidation near yesterday's highs, before the inevitable retest of the new swing low. If this retest can occur in an orderly manner over the remainder of 2021 it will set things up nicely for 2022. 

However, I'm not sure there is enough demand for this to happen in the Russell 2000, and this uncertainty will likely undermine any orderly recovery for the NASDAQ or S&P.  But, let's give price action a chance...

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Latest comments

Nice chart work. -- I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1 day counter trend to smoothen out the opposing action of rising prices versus declining 20 dma. ---  IWM comment: RHS begs to develop. OBV begs to return to 20ema. -- $COMP comment: Could draw a declining / bullish wedge across the top, intersecting 15.4k to show a breakdown below 15.4k thus begging for a similar break-out of the wedge to the upside as was broken below 15.4k, aiming for also a RHS development. -- $SPX comment: Could end up with a mega phone pattern that tends to resolve into bearishness after plenty volatility
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