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Is The Correction On The USD Going To Help Commodities?

Published 03/26/2020, 06:14 AM

The last few days brought us a correction on the USD. In theory, a weaker dollar should support commodities but that’s just an expected reaction that won’t necessarily be applicable in these volatile times that we are living now. As if the corona-crash wasn’t enough, we also have a price war in the oil market which is a bearish brother-in-arms of the industry’s crippling demand. As you can see, the oil market macro-environment is rather pessimistic.

The technical situation does not look any better. The price bounced from 20 USD/bbl. and tested the 28 USD/bbl, the level is the closest resistance before going into a downswing. Most recently, the price was creating a pennant and broke its lower line. That breakout is a negative factor and hints at further slide south.

A weaker USD along with global turmoil help gold. Technically, gold found local support, slightly bellow the 160a 0 USD/oz level and will most likely use it to make an attempt at new mid-term highs. The sentiment here is definitely positive.

Let’s also look at the S&P 500, where the last day brought us a decisive bearish victory. The price failed to continue a bearish attack and failed to break the 23.6% Fibonnaci and the resistance on the 2550 points. We also managed to break the short-term up trendline coming from the latest correction. As long as we stay below the green area, the sentiment will remain negative.

Latest comments

The virus reality data vs the modeling is a game changer. Things happen so fast now that the news cycle, last weeks.. instead of years. Who remembers much about that little dust up about impeachment. So , it is imperative that the USA reopens asap. The entire commodity sector will benefit with the will of American economy being set loose. The financial accommodations can be rocket fuel with the cuffs taken off. I sense that this will happen soon, and money is to be made. Lets get to it. Cheers.
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