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Is Moore's Law Done?

ByMarc Chandler
Published 01/02/2014, 11:10 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Moore's Law, named after Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel, who articulated it in the mid-1960s, holds that the number of microchip transistors that can be etched into a given surface would double every 18-24 months. The cost of the microchips would trend lower. It is under Moore's Law that the technology revolution took place.

This Great Graphic from the Economist shows the progress of Moore's Law since 2002. The two charts display the same data in slightly different ways.   Based on industry trends and some estimates, including by the Linley Group, the Economist warns that Moore's Law may not survive the New Year.    While chips may still shrink and become more powerful, albeit at a slower rate, the technological deflation may be slowing.
Slowing Technological Deflation?
Essentially, the next iteration of Moore's Law will require a more  expensive basket of technologies.   Already, the transistors are smaller than the wave length of light used to etch the chips.

In 2002, the Economist reports, a dollar would buy 2.6 mln transistors as small as 180 nanometres (millionths of a millimetre).  In 2014, a dollar will buy 20 mln transitors as small as about 20 nanometres.   However, in 2015,  the Linley Group projects a dollar will be able to buy only 19 mln transistors.
What A Dollar Will Buy

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