GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:
Taken Positions
EUR/USD: long at 1.0860, target 1.1180, stop-loss 1.0780, risk factor **
GBP/USD: long at 1.4820, target 1.5000, stop-loss 1.4740, risk factor ***
USD/JPY: short at 119.40, target 117.50, stop-loss 120.40, risk factor ***
AUD/USD: long at 0.7660, target 0.7930, stop-loss 0.7540, risk factor ***
NZD/USD: long at 0.7615, target 0.7890, stop-loss 0.7465, risk factor **
EUR/JPY: long at 130.00, target 132. 00, stop-loss 129.00, risk factor **
EUR/CHF: long at 1.0570, target 1.0990, stop-loss 1.0400, risk factor **
EUR/CAD: long at 1.3560, target 1.3900, stop-loss 1.3650, risk factor *
AUD/JPY: long at 92.00, target 94.50, stop-loss 91.00, risk factor ***
Pending Orders
USD/CAD: sell at 1.2650, if filled – target 1.2350, stop-loss 1.2790, risk factor ***
EUR/GBP: buy at 0.7295, if filled – target 0.7450, stop-loss 0.7220, risk factor *
EUR/USD Is Getting Ready To Jump Higher
(long for 1.1180)
- Greece has promised a list of reforms to make its economy competitive and public finances sustainable. They are to be scrutinised by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank before being presented to Eurozone finance ministers, the Eurogroup, for approval that would pave the way for new lending.
- The new list includes measures to boost state revenues by EUR 3 billion this year, but will not include any recessionary measures like wage or pension cuts. The list estimates a primary budget surplus of 1.5% for 2015 - below the 3% target included in the country's existing EU/IMF bailout - and growth of 1.4%.
- The Greek government is expected to address some form of pension reform, though it has already excluded any attempt to raise the retirement age or other sensitive measures that would be viewed as cutting pension payouts for austerity-hit Greeks. It is also expected to include labour reform aimed at fighting the increase in unregistered workers, and also include commitments to allow privatisations to proceed.
- Talks between Greece and its creditors continued through the weekend on reforms to unlock loans and Athens sounded an upbeat tone, but the lenders said it could take several more days before a proper list of measures was ready.
- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled that the U.S. central bank will likely start raising borrowing costs later this year. She added that after the first rate increase a further, gradual tightening in monetary policy will likely be warranted. If incoming data fails to support the Fed's economic forecast, the path of policy will be adjusted. She said: “The actual path of policy will evolve as economic conditions evolve, and policy tightening could speed up, slow down, pause, or even reverse course depending on actual and expected developments in real activity and inflation.”
- The European Commission's economic sentiment indicator rose by 1.6 points to 103.9, its highest since July 2011. This is a fourth straight month of rises. Italy showed the biggest jump in morale, increasing 2.4 points, followed by Germany, Spain and the Netherlands. The Eurozone economy is benefiting from weaker EUR and cheaper energy.
- The EUR/USD fell today on uncertainty over Greece waiting for a deal that will help Athens secure funding before it runs out of money by April 20.
- The volatility of the EUR/USD may be slightly higher tomorrow, when Eurozone March CPI estimate is released. We expect HICP flash to be 0.0% yoy vs. the market forecast of -0.2% yoy. Higher inflation reading should give a boost to the EUR. The EUR short positions are at record highs now and such a situation has the potential to generate a sustainable pullback. We stay long on the EUR/USD for 1.1180. The EUR/USD is close to the short-term upward trendline which may suggest it is getting ready to jump on higher levels soon.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.0949 (high Mar 27), 1.1052 (high Mar 26), 1.1062 (high Mar 18)
Support: 1.0801 (low Mar 27), 1.0768 (low Mar 23), 1.0651 (low Mar 20)
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies
USD/JPY: Weak Japan’s Industrial Output Data Hurt JPY
(short for 117.50)
- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the government and the Bank of Japan are not conducting policy to target the currency market but are pursuing quantitative easing to achieve price stability. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda added that as long as currencies move in line with fundamentals there would be no negative impact on the economy.
- Japanese factory output fell 3.4% mom in February due to declines in production of machinery, cars and electronics. The reading was much weaker than the median forecast for a 1.8% decline. It was the biggest drop since June last year. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect output to fall 2.0% in March and increase 3.6% in April.
- The output data come two days before the BOJ's closely watched tankan survey, which is expected to show business sentiment improved in the first quarter and may support the JPY bulls. We stay USD/JPY short for 117.50.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 119.98 (high Mar 24), 120.17 (high Mar 23), 112.20 (high Mar 20)
Support: 118.95 (low Mar 27), 118.33 (low Mar 26), 118.30 (low Feb 20)