The US Dollar traded almost unchanged on Friday. While consumer sentiment data from the US was below expectations there was no surprise in the price level data which could be important to influence a rate decision by the Federal Reserve.
Gold traded down on Friday being by now almost 5% down from the high three weeks ago. Gold was again under pressure as US Treasury rates were up again at the highest level for months.
WTI oil traded almost unchanged while the Baker Huhges rig count in the US was up by 6 international pressure remained as the situation regarding a possible secession of Kurdish Iraq brings instability in that oil rich region.
US equity indices traded higher on Friday with the S&P 500 (US 500) closing at record high. The comments from the Federal Reserve that the rates could be increased in this year pushed US bank and financial stocks higher with the US Banks ETF trading up by 8% in September, which is more than four times the performance of the S%P 500.
Cryptocurrencies continue their recovery with the Bitcoin trading up by ca. 17% within a week. Bitcoin thus leaves most of the other major cryptocurrencies behind as Ethereum was only up by ca. 5% and Litecoin and Ripple by ca. 12% in the same time-frame. Earlier when cryptocurrencies moved, Bitcoin exhibited lower volatility than most other major cryptocurrencies. It remains to be seen if this situation would change in the future.
On Monday the Germany and the European Union (EU) publish their PMI manufacturing index data and the unemployment rate in the EU. The US will publish on Monday the ISM Manufacturing index, construction spending data and domestic vehicle sales. On Tuesday in the Asian trading session the central bank of Australia is set to announce its interest rate decision.
The Euro was trading at the end of Friday's trading session slightly higher against the US Dollar amidst worse than expected consumer sentiment data. Weekly however the common currency lost ground against the Dollar due to optimism about a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve and uncertainty created by the unexpected bad results for Angela Merkel's party in the German general election.
On Monday the Germany and the European Union (EU) publish their PMI manufacturing index data and the unemployment rate in the EU. The US will publish on Monday the ISM Manufacturing index, construction spending data and domestic vehicle sales.
Pivot: 1.1925
Support: 1.179 1.177 1.1755
Resistance: 1.1835 1.186 1.189
Scenario 1: long positions above 1.1790 with targets at 1.1835 & 1.1860 in extension.
Scenario 2: 1.1790 look for further downside with 1.1770 & 1.1755 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
Gold
Gold continued its declining trend on Friday and traded 0.53% down as US consumer and inflation data did not change the market sentiment that the Federal Reserve will likely raise the interest rates this year. The gold price was under pressure as 10 years US Treasury notes yielded highest in 2.5 months.
As gold is mostly traded in US Dollar traders will look at the fundamental economic data such as from manufacturing or construction sectors released on Monday in the US.
Pivot: 1286.5
Support: 1279 1276 1271
Resistance: 1286 1290.5 1295
Scenario 1: short positions below 1286.50 with targets at 1279.00 & 1276.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 1286.50 look for further upside with 1290.50 & 1295.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI broke below a rising trend line.
WTI Oil
WIT oil traded almost unchanged. While the Baker Hughes active US oil rig count increased by 6 to 750 uncertainty surrounding the possible secession of the oil-rich Kurdish region in Northern Iraq gave some upwards momentum.
On Tuesday the API (American Petroleum Institute) Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will released, followed by crude oil stock statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics on Wednesday. As oil prices were rising, it remains to be seen how this would affect shale/sand oil production as these were seen not as profitable at low prices.
Pivot: 51.85
Support: 51.2 50.75 50.3
Resistance: 51.85 50.75 50.3
Scenario 1: short positions below 51.85 with targets at 51.20 & 50.75 in extension.
Scenario 2: 51.85 look for further upside with 52.25 & 52.85 as targets
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US 500
US equity indices closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 (US 500) closing at record high. Equities were supported last week by the statements from the Federal Reserve that interest rates could possibly rise sooner than generally expected.
The biggest gains on Friday were in the technology sector as the US Technology ETF was up 0.72% and the US Biotech ETF up 0.90%. Following the positive rate statements from the Federal Reserve financial stocks received significant support. The US Banks ETF closed now for over two weeks every day higher and over 8% up in September, compared to 1.8% up of the S&P 500.
On Monday the ISM Manufacturing Index as well as construction spending and domestic vehicle sales statistics will be released in the US.
Pivot: 2508
Support: 2508 2504 2499
Resistance: 2520 2524 2530
Scenario 1: long positions above 2508.00 with targets at 2520.00 & 2524.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 2508.00 look for further downside with 2504.00 & 2499.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.