Seriously, what the…??? Absolute bedlam everywhere. No sooner than I decided on one outlook, it changed as I was writing the report, then changed again. All the pairs I cover had such wide swings it was like a kids playground. Well, perhaps there was one exception – GBP/USD. By gad, us Brits know how to have a cup of tea while the natives are revolting…
Needless to say, I did not enjoy yesterday one little bit. When the extreme dollar lows were hit I was thinking that these should be THE lows but the emotion and sheer ferocity of the morning moves were far too much to really have any strong conviction. The recovery in the dollar was slightly less ferocious but due to its lower degree noise and limited pullbacks I have to suggest that we need to see the market settle.
I am really not at all confident of the counts that I have – although I did do a great deal of due diligence in the process. Even then, from experience, I know these types of moves can often turn around and bite you in the backside.
What is clear, however, is that we’re back on the dollar bullish track. That was never in doubt in the larger picture.
My expectation is that we shall either see my counts confirmed (which would be a miracle) or we shall have a sharp retracement that then provides the correct count. Unlike traditional Elliott Wave where you pick a swing high or swing low and plop a number on it – just because you have to but don’t know why – I do acknowledge that in these rapidly moving markets it is difficult to get these initial waves correct following such a traumatic day…
One last note, I have looked over AUD/USD. It seems to be going “walkabout…” and in the larger wave degrees. It looks pretty messy.
Take care today. There’s high risk of complications.