Despite the devaluation race of global fiat currencies, gold has lost 19 percent in USD terms within the first 10 months of 2013. JP Morgan argues that 'the most extreme excess' of global liquidity has reached an all-time high (JP Morgan sees 'most extreme excess' of global liquidity ever). With the global economy showing signs of recovery and a subsequent increase in the velocity of money flow expected there is a risk that inflationary pressures could increase. Currently the velocity of money flow is very low and as such is quite scary as it is below levels seen in 1960 (Velocity of M2 Money Stock). As such, the inflation threat is not unrealistic. Recently the UK surprised with high inflation expectations (UK inflation expectations show record jump in October), India is currently struggling with inflation (India raises interest rates to combat inflation) and for some years now has increased taxes on gold imports to curtail demand and hinder the general population from buying lots of gold as a safe-haven investment alternative.
XAUUSD seems to have formed a bottom and is currently trading above the 50-day moving average (USD 1342) and 100 DMA (USD 1324) and technically has further potential to increase to USD 1415. A daily close above USD 1355 and any trade above USD 1362 could be seen as bullish. The next resistance level is at the 200-day moving average (USD 1424) and the high of the end of August (USD 1433).