Greece Troika Report Due

Another volatile and risky trading session on Friday with most markets touching new lows intraday. US stocks opened weak but were able to manage a weekend relief rally and helped lift other risk based markets higher. UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to a 5 year high at 84.9 vs. 83 forecast. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday for Veteran’s Day in the US.

The Euro (EUR)
The euro found support under 1.2700 on Friday and closed at the psychological round number. The EUR/USD has been under pressure from weak stocks and mounting fears regarding Greece Bailout delays. On Monday we have the Eurogroup meeting regarding the Troika report into Greece’s reforms and this will be reviewed before they decide to release the next tranche of money.

The Sterling (GBP)
The pound ended the week on the back foot down at the 1.5900 level with risk aversion weighing and crosses failing to support. EUR/GBP remains close to the 0.8000 level but GBP/JPY has fallen to Y126 down from Y129 at the start of last week. Looking ahead, Eurogroup meeting.

The Japanese Yen (JPY)
The yen remained strong on Friday but the USD/JPY was able to lift off lows on the better economic data from the US. USD/JPY found support at Y79 and we closed at Y79.50. The outlook is for more range trading now that the topside resistance at Y80.40 held last week. Yen crosses are the main drag on the major and we are getting close to levels where Japanese Officials have become more vocal.

Australian Dollar (AUD)
Strong Chinese economic data over the weekend is sure to support the AUD this week with it becoming clear China’s economy will have a soft landing. Further Chinese Stimulus is also on the cards with the change in leadership last week opening up the door for fresh ideas. Update China October Trade Balance at 32bn vs. 27.1bn forecast.

Oil and Gold (XAU)
Gold performed well on Friday holding above $1730 in calm consolidation of the gains. OIL/USD dipped to new month lows near $84 before a sharp rebound above $86 into the weekend.

Pairs To Watch
EUR/USD: Greece progress to spark rally?

AUD/USD: China Trade Data to encourage buyers?

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY