Get 40% Off
🚀 AI-picked stocks soar in May. PRFT is +55%—in just 16 days! Don’t miss June’s top picks.Unlock full list

Great Graphic: Can You Spot The Secular Stagnation?

Published 07/29/2014, 02:21 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Acrobat. The charts show US and euro area GDP in log charts that also plot the pre-crisis trend.

It is clear that the crisis has thrown the US off its prior path, but it now appears to be on a parallel path, that is lower.  

Growth in the euro area has also broken down. It has yet to initiate a new expansion trend, which is in part, why some do think that it has not really and truly exited its recession.

Secular Stagnation

One of the big macro views that has shaped the debate in recent months is the resurrection of the previously discredited "secular stagnation" hypothesis by Lawrence Summers. The concept was first proposed by Alvin Hansen in the 1930s. It died an ignoble death as the US (and world) entered a long expansion wave. Marxists, like Magdoff and Sweezy tried reanimating the theory in the late 1980s, but offered a considerably nuanced view.

Magdoff and Sweezy generally argued that while mature capitalism was prone to stagnation, there were a number of mitigating factors, like government spending and permanent government deficits. In an essay published in the early 1980s, Sweezy wrote: "Does this mean that I am arguing or implying that stagnation has become a permanent state of affairs? Not at all."

Looking at chart on the left, the idea of secular stagnation in the US does not come to mind. The slope of the GDP in the euro area is not as steep as the US prior to the crisis and the economy appears to have gone no where in the last 6-7 years. Does this qualify as secular stagnation?

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.