GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Currency Outlook: April 22, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.33; (P) 130.71; (R1) 131.34

Intra-day bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Choppy decline from 133.48 should have finished at 127.10 after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 117.29 to 133.48. Current rise should extend to retest 133.48 first. Break will confirm that whole rise from 117.29 has resumed and should target 140.02 key resistance level next. On the downside, though, below 129.83 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 127.10 instead.

In the bigger picture, a recent pullback in GBP/JPY was relatively shallower than other yen crosses. Indeed, 126.54 support is intact so far and thus, retaining the bullish case that rise from 116.83 is still in progress. In other words, favor is mildly on the case that 116.83 is at least a medium term bottom. Though, we'd still prefer to see decisive break of 133.48 resistance to confirm upside momentum and pave the way to 140.02 key resistance level. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first and expect some more consolidative trading below 133.48 first.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="640" height="289">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.67; (P) 107.00; (R1) 107.51

A short-term bottom is in place in EUR/JPY at 104.61 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and choppy pull back from 111.43 is possibly completed too. Intra-day bias remains mildly on the upside for a test on 111.43/57 resistance zone. On the downside, below 106.16 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 104.61, however, will extend the fall from 111.43 towards 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next.

In the bigger picture, the rebound form 97.03 was disappointing as it failed to take out 111.57 resistance. Indeed, EUR/JPY also failed to sustain above 55 weeks EMA and is back under this level. While the downtrend from 169.96 has been showing loss of downside momentum in bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, there is not enough evidence to warrant a reversal yet. We'd possibly a new low below 97.03 before EUR/JPY bottoms. 111.57 resistance remains the key level to determine whether EUR/JPY has bottomed.
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