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Gold’s Big Bottom

Published 12/13/2019, 02:41 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

I’m finally caught up on sleep after Australia, but I’m still thinking about all the good times from that trip. You get to meet so many smart, innovative people when you go out on these speaking tours, and I always love Australia because that country never fails to bring out these great types of crowds.

Anyway, I was talking with a subscriber after one of my presentations over there, and she introduced me to a technical analyst she uses for trading who employs some real original indicators combining shorter-term time cycles and patterns. This was really impressive stuff, and I talk about it all in this week’s rant.

To make it quick: He’s seeing high probability signals that both gold and silver are bottoming out right now and heading higher again into 2020, maybe as late as the fall. How high? Say 80%. That’s Adam O’Dell territory. Only Adam can find short-term probabilities like that!

That’s serious, but the good news? The smart money is already buying the beaten-down mining stocks, so gold and silver should be next to run and look to already be starting with a minimum target of $1,720 on gold, maybe even $1,900. This also has implications for Treasury bond yields continuing to rise a bit which will be good for locking in that safe haven play in 2020 when we finally see stock peak.

You’ve seen me talk about Money Velocity before. Well, now I’m looking at Money Velocity around the world. So, keep an eye out for that.

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And have a great weekend.

Gold’s Big Bottom

Latest comments

You have to keep an eye on audusd these months. It dragging the yields up.
Sounds like literally everyone else. 80% probability you say? What percentage of prople loose money? Oh yeah 80%
only those with loose money like yourself
XAU/USD.... ........Clinical around $ 1475 as on 13 Dec......... closed above 1473 (monthly close as at 30 SEP) and closed above previous weeks close 1469, 1463//1459... Depending on trade deal news on Sunday the 15 Dec we may see a short cover or relief rally towards 1488/1493+ if holds 1473 SEP month close... According to my retracement working, the up move stared from 2019 year low $ 1266.35 Target 1337.07, 1451.34, 1565.40...Considering high 1557.09 almost all are met already (year 2019 high as of now is 1557.09)..... But the same working is showing, reversal from 1557.09 targeted 1470.37 and 1443.42..Now 1451.24 / 1443.42 may be a support or reversal and if fails to so the down trend may be extended towards 1424, 1395, 1366..... Watch close above 1473 in the early days of the week ahead for 1477, 1481, 1484.60, 1488....1492 plus.... Level 1500 to remain as psychological resistance.... Let we see
XAU/USD.... closed around 1475 on 13 Dec....... Falling USD, UJ strengthening shows support even though trades in smaller range (1475-1478)... Watch SEP 30 close (monthly basis) around 1473 to sustain and breakout or close above 1482 adds strength for a move towards 1488, 1493, 1497, 1500+. ..... Struggling to break 1482 and close below 1473/1468 indicates still the bears are in strength (for a fall towards 1459, 1452, 1445 minus again )...Let we see...
Gold so far has been a safe heaven asset due to uncertainty. 2 big issues that support the uncertainty was Us China trade deal and BREXIT. Both of them have started getting much much better. So normally, without speculators in the gold market, gold will decline a lot starting from Monday...Gold will just lose from 2019 profits...2020 is a different year because of potential recession...
Check historical data of November 19 when Bloomberg posted news about a forthcoming deal. Gold dropped 3.5% in 3 days, the biggest decline of the last 3 years. Again, when Trump said on his Twitter that a deal is done, gold dropped immediately 20$. So this deal has a great impact on gold. Currently, there is no positive news for gold, only negative news. On Dec. 13 it was really weird that rised....My opinion is that next week is going to have a sharp decline like November's...
completely wrong. the trade deal affects almost nothing. it's like 2% of US gdp. Brexit is overblown news. gold is going up because of ten years of unprecedented currency printing by central banks. the Fed fake tried to stop theirs while others continued. hence we have record gold prices in every other currency. Due to repo market instability, the Fed has decided to create 500$ billion this month to save the markets. this is why gold is going up.
Long term I agree. The reasons why gold has risen are well known and on 2020 it will rise more. Short term gold will decline more than 3% like November 19. These news affect the price. Friday's rise was a typical bull trap of speculators...Investors wanted tariffs to be suspended and this is what happened today by both countries. Is this positive news for gold???? no way. Fed's policy doesn't affect currently gold. In the near future it will...but not next week...
if liquidity is an issue, how does money flow to GOLD? Brexit is the only uncertainty left now. I see some money flow into GOLD to hedge against BREXIT. but investors feel confident and Brexit happens orderly, then GOLD does not have a support base.
Repo rate and liquidity issue also supportive of your case for gold...
Worth mentioning the repo rate and underlying liquidity issue in supporting the bullish case on gold
I'm not alone then ;) Thanks
good to see u..Harry. when u gonna issue ur next book? , I really wanna see ur next book.
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