During the previous weekly review, we mentioned gold declining and hitting the $1180 target a few weeks earlier than previously forecast.
Reaching the $1180 target also represented a “triple bottom” technical pattern on the Daily timeframe, encouraging investors to enter the market. At first, I was apprehensive this would be a false breakout – mainly due to the expectation the Federal Reserve will conclude QE later in October. The US market-sell off during the previous week, alongside comments from the Federal Reserve’s James Bullard that the Fed may not actually conclude QE after all has changed my weariness towards a false breakout. With the right fundamentals connecting together, we could now be looking at Gold going on a bull run.
As mentioned above, the two major economic releases over the upcoming week involve Chinese GDP and US inflation for September. However, despite all the political/economic uncertainty taking place around the globe, gold has continued to trade only in accordance with US economic news. Therefore, investors in gold must keep an eye out for the United States inflation data.
If the inflation data heightens anticipation that the Federal Reserve will delay normalizing monetary policy and continue QE, there are high chances Gold will become very attractive to investors. Gold seems to have found some resistance around 1250 but if this is surpassed, resistance can be found at 1270 and 1290.
However if the CPI data is in line with forecasts, expectations will increase that the Fed will conclude QE as planned. This would encourage Gold to erase its recent gains, with support found at 1220 and 1204.
Both the Stochastic Oscillator and RSI are suggesting that gold could move in either direction.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and ideas and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime Ltd, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Risk Warning: There is a high level of risk involved with trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs. You should not risk more than you can afford to lose, it is possible that you may lose more than your initial investment. You should not trade unless you fully understand the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss. When trading, you must always take into consideration your level of experience. If the risks involved seem unclear to you, please seek independent financial advice.