Talking Points:
- US Dollar: Evidence of Oncoming Downturn Building
- S&P 500 Manages to Hold Support Near 2000 Figure
- Crude Oil Range Holds, gold Snaps Monthly Uptrend
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 11734, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a move above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 1998.00-30 area marked by a rising trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a turn back above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 aims for the January 23 high at 2068.10.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, overturning the monthly uptrend. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1253.77 exposes the 50% level at 1237.18. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib at 1274.30 targets trend line support-turned-resistance at 1299.63.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling having attempted to recover as expected. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 50.49 exposes the 23.6% level at 53.77. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib expansion at 47.07 targets the 23.6% threshold at 43.79.
