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Gold Breaks $1300 And The Big Picture

ByMatthew Bradbard
Published 11/08/2013, 01:24 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
GC
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Friday's NFP number was a ray of hope if you believe the numbers coming in at 204,000 jobs added in October with the consensus only being 120,000. The unemployment rate rose to 7.3% from 7.2%. There were no effects at all from the 16 day government shutdown...yeah right? The books were cooked in August and September with upward revisions. Let's hold hands and sing Kumbayah and rejoice the economy is great. The stock market will continue to grind to fresh record highs, energy prices will continue to move south and the Jacksonville Jaguars may turn around their season and win Superbowl XLVIII.

This was much stronger report than anticipated and put QE-tapering back on the table for the December's FOMC meeting if not early 14' under Yellen. The probability is now closer to 50/50 and is as high as it has been since the government has gone back to work. Gold futures have retreated nearly $80/ounce in the last two weeks dragging prices under $1300. Below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level seen below at $1285 I see the next support level at $1250 identified by the red horizontal line. I remain in the bear camp but do not have exposure with clients currently... I would prefer to be a buyer for clients from lower levels.

Gold looks to be headed lower so do not rule out a trade near $1200 before year end.
Gold Daily
I was doing analyses for a client identifying the yearly wild trading ranges in gold over the last 5 years. As one can see this is not a buy and hold market on average a $44,000 trading range per year on 1 futures contract. Into 14' I think a buy under $1200/ounce will make sense for position traders as I anticipate appreciation in 14'.

Gold Weekly

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