GBP/JPY May Not Recover Past 126.45

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.95; (P) 125.99; (R1) 126.05

GBP/JPY's recovery from 124.64 might be finished at 126.45 already and intraday bias is back mildly on the downside. Break of 124.64 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 133.48 and should target 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 133.48 at 123.19 next. Sustained break there will target a test on 116.83/117.29 support zone next. On the upside, in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 127.10 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, the acceleration of the fall from 133.48 suggests that rebound from 116.83 is finished with three waves up to 133.48. Note that GBP/JPY is limited well below 140.02 resistance, is now back below 55 weeks EMA and has weekly MACD crossed below signal line. Overall picture now argues that choppy decline from 163.05 is not finished. Sustained break of above mentioned 123.19 Fibonacci level will likely send GBP/JPY through 116.83 to extend the long-term downtrend towards 100 psychological level.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.39; (P) 101.41; (R1) 101.44

The sharp decline today dragged 4 hours MACD back below signal line and suggests that recovery from 100.20 is finished at 102.11. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100.20 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 111.43 and should target a test on 97.03 low next. On the upside, above 102.11 will bring another recovery. But upside is expected to be limited well below 104.61 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, the downtrend from 169.96 is still in progress and fall from 111.43 is like resuming such down trend. Break of 97.03 will target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 97.03 from 111.43 at 95.18 and below. Nonetheless, note again that we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support below 95.18 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal below 95.18.
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