FX Weekly: USD/JPY, BOJ, FED, 15 Currency Levels and Targets

EUR/USD begins the week trading a 114 pip range between vital points 1.0822 to 1.0936. EUR/USD last week traded a 168 pip range and 78 pips lower than 2 weeks ago at 238 pips. EUR/USD’s range 2 weeks ago at 238 was EUR/USD best range week in the past 10.

At 10 weeks ago, EUR/USD traded 245 pips and the highest range. Overall, EUR/USD averages 167 pips per week for the past 10 weeks and a 3 month range from 1.0500’s to 1.1000’s.

EUR/USD shorts are located on a break at 1.0866 and a reload long as 1.0822 is expected to hold. On the upside, 1.0936 is also expected to hold as EUR/USD runs into a brick wall at 1.0957. Shorts at the 1.0936 concludes a week of range trades.

GBP/USD’s best range at 362 pips traded 2 weeks ago and last week at 156 pips. GBP/USD’s best weeks over the past 10 weeks traded 362, 235, 222 and 218. Overall, GBP/USD trades a 204 pip weekly average for the past 10 weeks and 37 pips higher than EUR/USD.

GBP/USD commonality over the past 10 weeks was trade at vital points from 1.2300’s, 1.2500’s and 1.2800’s. GBP/USD over next weeks trades from 1.2507, 1.2621, 1.2858 and 1.3186. The bottom side is rising while the topside is falling.

GBP/USD at 1.2868 and 1.2507 holds for the week as 1.2621 decides GBP/USD longs and shorts.

DXY’s 10 week highs traded best ranges at 175 and 167 pips. DXY runs a 10 weekly average at 132 pips. DXY for the week trades.

The point of departure at 10 weeks is exactly when EUR/USD topped at 1.1097 and DXY bottomed at 100.00’s from 114.00’s. EUR/USD traded 6 weeks higher and 4 weeks lower while DXY traded 5 weeks higher to 5 weeks lower. GBP/USD traded 6 weeks higher to 4 weeks lower.

USD/JPY Vs DXY

DXY bottomed 10 and 11 weeks ago at 100.00’s from 114.00 tops at the same time USD/JPY bottomed at 133.00’s. DXY then traveled 7 weeks later to 104.00;s as USD/JPY traded to 143.00’s. USD/JPY traded 2.31 pips for every 1 pip to DXY and 6 weeks higher to 4 weeks lower to match GBP/USD.

USD/JPY Vs EUR/USD

Opposite DXY is the EUR/USD top at 1.1097 as USD/JPY bottomed at 133.00’s. USD/JPY traded 2.35 pips to EUR/USD and perfectly consistent to DXY. EUR/USD maintains a correlation at +63% to EUR/USD and this is a problem for current markets as correlations must run traditional negative.

USD/JPY

Nothing unusual exists to USD/JPY moves in relation to DXY or EUR/USD. The problem for USD/JPY was an extremely overbought exchange rate at 133.00’s. DXY as the problem currency trades above 50 year monthly averages and is naturally and historically overbought.

USD/JPY, DXY, Fed and BOJ

USD/JPY long term targets 136.85, 130.62 and 127.02. The question to BOJ intervention is answered by what is the purpose to intervene. The problem is not Japan and the BOJ as YCC, Inflation, JGB yield curve and Exports are operating perfectly. The dilemma derives from Interest rate happy Powell, Inflation and an extremely overbought DXY. The FED should intervene on DXY.

USD/JPY targets 141.20 for the week while DXY must eventually challenge the 50 year monthly average at 99.00’s.

3 Trade Combo: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD

Severely oversold AUD/USD Vs massive overbought EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD offers a 3 trade combo. GBP/AUD targets easily 1.8840, EUR/AUD easily 1.6200’s and 1.6100’s and AUD/USD to challenge the vital break at 0.6735.

GBP/NZD Vs EUR/NZD

GBP/NZD break at 2.0673 targets 2.0608 2.0508 and 2.0409 while EUR/NZD targets 1.7680 and 1.7583. Longer term on a break of 1.7485, EUR/NZD target 1.7324.

USD/CAD trades oversold for the week while CAD/JPY along with all JPY cross pairs targets lower easily by 800 and 1000 pips.

EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD begin the week oversold.

Overall currency markets trade in tight ranges against correlation problems to EUR/USD Vs USD/JPY, JPY cross pairs to anchor currencies and DXY historically overbought. Level of DXY is the main issue and offers tight range currency markets until DXY trades lower at an acceptable level.