The forex world is tied to Europe at the hip; and this morning the “risk off” trade is on once again. Our positions are working for us this morning, but that only puts us back into the range where we put the positions on at, and therefore we’ll put in several stop losses as we are toying with the idea that the new Greek and Italian governments will be given a bit of a honeymoon period asevidenced by Thursday’s and Friday’s trade. Today would in fact be a corrective day to take out some of the excesses of those days, and if so, then our positions could very well be in trouble and we want to protect our capital to fight another day. At some point – our positions will be the correct once. The question is whether that point is today or off somewhere towards year-end.
To that end, our new stops are as follows:
1. EUR/USD – currently 1.3626; stop at 1.3791
2. EUR/CAD – currently 1.3877; stop at 1.3980
3. AUD/CHF – currently .9253; stop at .9064
If we look to take another position, then our propensity lies in putting on a long Pound Sterling position given the developing bullish consolidation. Today, we find GBP/USD correcting fairly substantially, but if it can recover…then our thoughts are to be buyers on a breakout above the 1.6092 level.
FOREX / CME RECOMMENDATIONS
1.) LONG: Aussie Dollar /Swiss Franc Cross (AUD/CHF) — 1 UNIT: We recommended a long AUD position on 11/4 at 1.0364 (CME: 1.0315). Yesterday, we added a short CHF position at .8931. (CME: 1.2010). This brings us to a long AUD/CHF cross at .9256 (CME Spread: -16.75). We are modestly lower on the cross, but look for it to work its way higher in the weeks ahead.
2.) SHORT: Euro (EUR/USD) — 1 Unit: We recommended a short position on 11/9 at 1.3595 (CME: 1.3600). The recent foray higher into the 200-dma failed, with lower lows expected in the heel of the Italian debt crisis ramping up.
3.) SHORT: Euro / Canadian Dollar Cross (EUR/CAD) — 1 Unit: We recommended a short cross position on 11/9 given the rally in the cross has reached upwards into overhead resistance of the 50-dma/100-dma/580-dma cross. Thus far, it is proving its merit, but more importantly — our 40-day model is turning lower. We’ll mark our position at 1.3836.
NEW RECOMMENDATION:
1.) British Pound (GBP/USD) — 2 UNITS: Buy on a breakout about 1.6092 (CME: 1.6089).
For a full report, see attached pdf.
To that end, our new stops are as follows:
1. EUR/USD – currently 1.3626; stop at 1.3791
2. EUR/CAD – currently 1.3877; stop at 1.3980
3. AUD/CHF – currently .9253; stop at .9064
If we look to take another position, then our propensity lies in putting on a long Pound Sterling position given the developing bullish consolidation. Today, we find GBP/USD correcting fairly substantially, but if it can recover…then our thoughts are to be buyers on a breakout above the 1.6092 level.
FOREX / CME RECOMMENDATIONS
1.) LONG: Aussie Dollar /Swiss Franc Cross (AUD/CHF) — 1 UNIT: We recommended a long AUD position on 11/4 at 1.0364 (CME: 1.0315). Yesterday, we added a short CHF position at .8931. (CME: 1.2010). This brings us to a long AUD/CHF cross at .9256 (CME Spread: -16.75). We are modestly lower on the cross, but look for it to work its way higher in the weeks ahead.
2.) SHORT: Euro (EUR/USD) — 1 Unit: We recommended a short position on 11/9 at 1.3595 (CME: 1.3600). The recent foray higher into the 200-dma failed, with lower lows expected in the heel of the Italian debt crisis ramping up.
3.) SHORT: Euro / Canadian Dollar Cross (EUR/CAD) — 1 Unit: We recommended a short cross position on 11/9 given the rally in the cross has reached upwards into overhead resistance of the 50-dma/100-dma/580-dma cross. Thus far, it is proving its merit, but more importantly — our 40-day model is turning lower. We’ll mark our position at 1.3836.
NEW RECOMMENDATION:
1.) British Pound (GBP/USD) — 2 UNITS: Buy on a breakout about 1.6092 (CME: 1.6089).
For a full report, see attached pdf.
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