• Further highs in JPY crosses as new financial year gets under way in Japan.
• EURUSD remains as cagey as ever. I’m leaning towards more dovishness on Thursday than the market may be expecting, but does this increase attractiveness of Eurozone assets and ironically mean more pressure for EUR to appreciate? Moreover, there are a lot of inputs on the USD side of the equation over the next few days with ISM non-manufacturing data due on Thursday and the US employment report for March expected on Friday.
• GBPUSD weakened from key resistance (61.8 percent Fibo) on a slightly weaker Manufacturing PMI.
• AUDCAD is confirming suspicions expressed recently after the RBA couldn’t boost the Aussie.
• AUDUSD resistance at 0.9300 looks like a major obstacle for further upside — 0.9225/0.9150 is the rather wide support zone.
• EURSEK has found support at a key zone that it must hold to keep focus to the upside (8.88/90).
• NOKSEK remains in a rally stance after consolidating quickly despite strong Swedish data today. 1.1000 soon?
Charts
Chart: GBPUSD
Cable weakened at an interesting retracement area, keeping the marginally bearish structural case intact until proven otherwise. But we need to work down through 1.6550/1.6500 before considering the possibility of a break of the range and further test toward 1.6250 structural support.
Chart: AUDCAD
I put AUDCAD in the spotlight as the valuation sticks out like a sore thumb. We got a second reversal setup today after the RBA overnight failed to see the pair higher. This provides a relatively compelling, bearish, technical hook for fresh positions with clearly defined technical stop levels. More comprehensive confirmation that the mature uptrend is failing will not come in until we push back down through 1.0050/parity.
Chart: AUDUSD
The 0.9300 area is looking like stiff resistance here locally as we await the rest of this week’s US data inputs.
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