Market movers today
In terms of data releases we have a very thin calendar today but there are some interesting events. A potential rating decision from Moody's on France's sovereign rating might attract some attention. Moody's has had a negative outlook on France since 2012 and the economic outlook for France is still fragile. However, the reduced tail risk together with the improved economic situation in the rest of Europe is a supportive factor for the French rating. In case of a downgrade we expect the market impact to be very limited.
ECB president Mario Draghi speaks about the path from crisis to stability tonight. He will likely continue to sound dovish about the economic recovery and also mention the outlook for inflation. Any comments about the latest money market development will be met with interest.
Bank of England's Mark Carney speaks in Davos. Yesterday he said there is 'no immediate need to increase interest rates' and signalled a move away from the unemployment threshold as the MPC will focus on the 'overall conditions in the whole labour market (...) and not just one indicator'.
Today's LTRO repayment could also attract some attention as focus on the EUR money markets and excess liquidity has intensified. However, the repayment last week was small and another low number will limit the market impact.
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