Forex Speculators Continue Reducing U.S. Dollar Positions

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

US dollar net speculator positions fell last week to -$4.19 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to cut back on their bets in the US dollar for an eighth straight week last week and dollar positions are now in an overall bearish position for a second week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling -$4.19 billion as of Tuesday April 26th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.34 billion from the -$1.85 billion total short position that was registered on April 19th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar speculative position has now fallen an amazing seventeen out of the last eighteen weeks as speculators only increased dollar bets on a weekly basis once since the new year (a March 1st increase of +1.7 billion).

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the the Australian dollar (+15,434 change in weekly contracts) and the euro (+7,250 contracts). The Australian dollar and euro positions have now each gained for six straight weeks while Canadian dollar positions (+4,691 contracts) have risen for thirteen straight weeks.

Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the British pound sterling (+6,483 contracts) which rose for the first time in six weeks and the New Zealand dollar (+2,033 contracts) which gained for a fifth week.

Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were the Japanese yen (-5,372 change), Swiss franc (-145 contracts) and Mexican peso (-4,906 change in weekly contracts).

This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 26th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

British Pound Sterling:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Japanese Yen:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Swiss Franc:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Canadian Dollar:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Australian Dollar:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

New Zealand Dollar:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Mexican Peso:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.