EUR/USD Daily Analysis
EUR/USD dropped as expected though never rallied high enough to trigger a sell signal for us – we were waiting in the 3810-3850 resistance zone. Jobless claims rose to 326k over a 317k forecast – not a huge miss but when combined with the larger than expected trade deficit and yesterday’s employment miss, it seemed to be enough of an excuse to continue the downtrend.
Speaking of which, we are in a short-term downtrend on the 4h charts and have been since March 19th when our intraweek rising support was broken, leading to a series of lower lows and lower highs. At the moment a break below 3700 is needed to continue that downtrend. We will also remain bearish as long as 3810 holds – if we see a rally above that it could signal a short-term bottom is in place.
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Our Preferred Trades*: We are still looking to get short but will move our sell zone down just a bit, to 3750-3800, with bearish confirmation (candlestick or support break) targeting 3700 and 3660.
Yesterday’s EUR/USD SwingPRO Signal Result: No setups triggered yesterday.
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: Short on a support break between 3750-3800 with a TP of 80 and a SL of 50.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Apr 3 | 00:30 | AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 00:30 | AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB) | $1200M | $800M | $1392M | |
| 08:30 | EUR Markit EU Composite PMI (MAR) | 54.1 | 54.5 | ||
| 08:30 | EUR Markit EU Services PMI (MAR) | 53.5 | 53.9 | ||
| 08:30 | GBP Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (MAR) | 57.6 | 58.1 | 58.2 | |
| 08:30 | GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (MAR) | 57.6 | 58.2 | 58.2 | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 11:45 | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 3) | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | |
| 11:45 | EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 3) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| 11:45 | EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility (APR 3) | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0.75% | |
| 12:30 | EUR ECB President Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision | ||||
| 12:30 | USD Continuing Claims (MAR 21) | 2836K | 2850K | 2814K | |
| 12:30 | USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 28) | 326K | 317K | 310K | |
| 12:30 | USD Trade Balance (FEB) | $-42.3B | $-38.5B | $-39.3B | |
| 14:00 | USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAR) | 53.1 | 53.5 | 51.6 |