The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 7th through April 11th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, April 7th
- All Day CNY Bank Holiday
- 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 1.4% versus last 5.1% expected. The currency fell.
- 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 437.9B versus last 433.5B expected. The currency rose.
- 8:15am CHF CPI 0.4% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey noted that, "The vast majority of businesses expect inflation to be within the Bank’s 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control range over the next two years, with expectations concentrated in the bottom half of that range. Expectations continue to be dampened by softness in domestic sales and by the recent weakness in inflation data, although a few firms anticipate that higher import prices due to the lower Canadian dollar may contribute to slightly higher inflation outcomes in the future." The currency rose.
- 11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence survey 52 versus 52 expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, April 8th
- 12:50am JPY Current Account -0.04T versus -0.04T expected. The currency rose.
- 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 4 versus last 7 expected. The currency rose.
- 3:50am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend, albeit with some fluctuations due to the consumption tax hike. Overseas economies — mainly advanced economies -- are starting to recover, although a lackluster performance is still seen in part. Exports have recently leveled off more or less. The pick-up in business fixed investment has become increasingly evident as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has continued to increase." The currency rose.
- 7:33am JPY BOJ Press Conference: BOJ Governor Kuroda said, “As always, I remain convinced about the prospect for achieving our price target, Japan is making steady progress towards 2 per cent inflation. I don’t think there is a need to take additional measures now.” The currency rose.
- 8:15am CHF Retail Sales 1.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
- 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 1.0% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD Building Permits -11.6% versus -2.4% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.9% versus last 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.17M versus 3.99M expected. The currency fell.
- 6:30pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota said that, "Congress has charged the FOMC with making monetary policy to promote price stability and to promote maximum employment. The FOMC has interpreted the first goal, price stability, to mean keeping inflation close to 2 percent. The FOMC’s job is to vary monetary stimulus over time to meet these mandated objectives." The currency fell.
- 7:45pm USD FOMC Member Plosser said that, "An increased role for simple regulatory mechanisms that are harder to evade — and even better, mechanisms that utilize market forces to discipline firm behavior — is superior to an ever-expanding list of complex rules that seeks to cover every possible outcome. In many circumstances, simpler and more transparent regulatory approaches, that also enhance the effectiveness of market discipline, can better achieve financial stability while maintaining a dynamic financial system that meets the needs of our economy." The currency fell.
Wednesday, April 9th
- 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey 0.3% versus last -0.7% expected. The currency rose.
- 2:30am AUD Home Loans 2.3% versus 1.7% expected. The currency rose.
- 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 15.7B versus 18.0B expected. The currency rose.
- 9:30am GBP Trade Balance -9.1B versus -9.3B expected. The currency rose.
- 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.0M versus last-2.4M expected. The currency fell.
- 6:01pm USD 10-year Bond Auction 2.72 average yield with a 2.8 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 2.73 percent, with a 2.9 bid to cover ratio expected. The currency fell.
- 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that, "The majority of participants continued to judge the levels of uncertainty associated with their forecasts for the two inflation measures to be broadly similar to historical norms and the risks to those projections to be broadly balanced. Five participants, however, saw the risks to their inflation forecasts as tilted to the downside, reflecting, for example, the possibility that the current low levels of inflation could prove more persistent than anticipated as well as elevated global risks to the outlook. Conversely, one participant cited upside risks to inflation stemming from uncertainty about the timing and efficacy of the Committee’s withdrawal of accommodation.". The currency fell.
- 11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 58.4 versus last 56.2 expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, April 10th
- 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders -8.8% versus -3.2% expected. The currency rose.
- 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.4% versus last 2.1% expected. The currency rose.
- 2:30am AUD Employment Change 18.1K versus 7.3K expected. The currency rose.
- 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.8% versus 6.1% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:07am CNY Trade Balance 7.7B versus -0.9B expected.
- 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
- 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin noted that, "As regards external financing, taking into account non-MFI lending, the annual net flow of NFCs’ external financing was slightly below EUR 100 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, while it was slightly negative if non-MFI lending is excluded. Lately, non-MFI lending to NFCs has mainly mirrored an increase in loans granted by NFC conduits to their parent companies, with these loans financed in turn through the issuance of debt securities by these subsidiaries. In a way, this therefore represents indirect market financing of NFCs." The currency rose.
- 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency fell.
- 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate Decision 0.50% versus unchanged at 0.50% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 300K versus 314K expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Import Prices 0.6% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
- All Day ALL First Day of G20 Meetings: U.S. Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew said, "We remain concerned by inflation rates consistently below target and weak demand. More needs to be done to support growth and guard against further disinflation in the euro area ... More action (is needed) to avoid a repeat of the fallout from the euro area banking crises into sovereign borrowing markets."
- 7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -36.9B versus -76.5B expected. The currency fell.
Friday, April 11th
- 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "Overseas economies, mainly advanced economies, are expected to recover moderately. The aforementioned movements in foreign exchange rates are also projected to continue exerting upward pressure on exports. By major region, the U.S. economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery, partly because downward pressure on the economy from the fiscal side is expected to continue to wane in light of forecasts that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained." The currency fell.
- 2:30am CNY CPI 2.4% versus 2.5% expected.
- 2:30am CNY PPI 0.5% versus -2.2% expected.
- 1:30pm USD PPI 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.6% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
- 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey versus 81.2 expected. The currency fell.
- All Day ALL Second Day of G20 Meetings: German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said, "The Ukraine has played an important role at the sidelines" (of the IMF meeting) ... We agreed that the IMF has to play a leading role in helping Ukraine. In the G7 we agreed that we have to find a common solution. We must not make it too difficult for Russia ... we have to find a way to solve this problem in partnership. But you cannot rule out an escalation."
Saturday, April 12th
- 12th-14th CNY New Loans 1,000B expected.
- All Day ALL IMF Meetings, hawkish = good for currency.
- 5:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi speaks, hawkish = good for currency.
Majors Recap:
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.3700 open to a 1.3895 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 103.33 open to a 101.59 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.6570 open to a 1.6725 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.9282 open to a 0.9405 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0979 open to a 1.0957 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.8584 open to a 0.8688 close.
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.