Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) Up 6.4% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) . Shares have added about 6.4% in that time frame.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is FRT due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Federal Realty Q4 FFO Meets, Revenues Top Estimates

Federal Realty reported fourth-quarter 2017 adjusted FFO per share of $1.47, meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Adjusted FFO per share also compared favorably with the prior-year quarter tally of $1.45.

Results reflect growth in revenues. However, the company’s proactive releasing efforts to reposition properties had an adverse effect on its quarterly results.

Total revenues for the quarter grew 9.7% year over year to $224 million. Moreover, the top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $218.7 million.

During the reported quarter, Federal Realty signed 91 lease deals for 344,768 square feet of retail space. As of Dec 31, 2017, the company’s overall portfolio was 95.3% leased compared to 94.4% as of Dec 31, 2016.

For full-year 2017, adjusted FFO per share came in at $5.91, well ahead of the prior-year tally of $5.65. This was backed by 7% year-over-year growth in total revenues to $857.3 million.

Quarter in Details

On a comparable-space basis, Federal Realty leased 300,511 square feet, at an average cash-basis contractual rent escalation of 15% and 27% on a GAAP basis.

Same-center property operating income (including redevelopments) improved 2.6% year over year. However, excluding such properties, same-center property operating income improved 1.0%. As of Dec 31, 2017, Federal Realty’s same-center portfolio was 96.3% leased, rising from 95.9% reported in the year-ago period.

Federal Realty exited 2017 with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $15.2 million, decreasing from $23.4 million at the end of 2016.

Outlook

For 2018, Federal Realty issued its FFO per share guidance in the range of $6.08-$6.24.

Dividend Update

Concurrently, Federal Realty announced a quarterly cash dividend of $1.00 per share. The dividend will be paid on Apr 16 to shareholders on record as of Mar 14, 2018.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been three revisions higher for the current quarter compared to one lower.

Federal Realty Investment Trust Price and Consensus

VGM Scores

At this time, FRT has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Zacks' style scores indicate that the company's stock is suitable for growth and momentum investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, FRT has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.