Yesterday’s Trading:
On Wednesday, weak US inflation data became the main driver pushing down the USD. Traders were abandoning the dollar before the FOMC convened, expecting that the Fed will leave the base rate unchanged. In light of this, oil and gold went up.
The August base CPI stood at 0.1% MoM and 1.8% YoY against a forecasted 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY. The standard CPI was -0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY against a -0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY forecast.
The bulls were expecting to see a growth in inflation before the FOMC meeting and this didn’t happen. The EUR/USD renewed to 1.1320.
Main News of the Day:
- At 09:35 EET, the Bank of Japan’s governor Kuroda will give a speech;
- At 11:00 EET, the UK is releasing a retail sales report for August;
- At 15:30 EET, the US is publishing August data for construction permits, Q2 balance of trade figures and initial unemployment benefit application figures;
- At 21:00 EET the US Federal Reserve will let us know its decision on the US base rate, its economic forecast with an accompanying announcement.
- At 21:30 EET a press conference with the FOMC will take place.
Market Expectations:
The Fed will publish its base rate decision at 21:00 EET. Before then, there are some important reports to come out. I think high volatility will be a key feature of today’s trading. I’m inclined to believe that the EUR/USD will be sitting in a sideways trend at 1.1280.
Technical Analysis:
- Intraday target maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 125 points (4 figures).
Hourly
The EUR/USD has renewed to 90 degrees and is currently trading around 1.1296 by the LB. I would like to believe that the pair will stick to a sideways trend ‘till this evening. The forecast which I’ve made is for until the Fed lets us know its decision.
Daily
The upturned bar from 14th September has come off and now we see that Wednesday has seen a reverse candle form. It’s worth waiting for a growth to 1.1372 on the candle. Taking into account that today is the day that the Fed will make its decision, the euro could go in any direction. If the rates are left unchanged, the euro will gain against the dollar and vice versa.
Weekly
There’s not much interesting here for the moment.
