The EUR/USD 240-minute chart has been in a broad bull channel for 5 weeks. It is close enough to the December 8 lower high that it might get there today after the FOMC announcement.
The EUR/USD 240-minute chart has been in a weak bull channel for 5 weeks. It has had deep pullbacks after every new high. Yet, traders keep buying every reversal attempt. It is close enough to the December 8 lower high that it might not be able to escape the magnetic pull. As a result, the bears might not be able to gain control until after this rally reaches that high. At that point, the bears will try for a double top.
Today’s FOMC announcement is unusually important because the Fed is in the process of changing its policy. Traders are uncertain of the speed of interest rate hikes. Any surprise could lead to a strong move up or down.
Overnight EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has sold off for the past 2 hours. It probably will be mostly sideways going into the 11 a.m. report. Since the 1st move after an FOMC announcement reverses within 10 minutes in 50% of cases, traders should wait for at least 10 minutes before trading after the report.
Because today’s report is unusually important, the chance of a big trend after the report is greater. Furthermore, the trend could last for a week or more.