After the European wheat harvest, attention turns to the Australian wheat output, with the risk of dry El Niño weather approaching in the coming months.
The spread between CBOT wheat and Matiff mill wheat has narrowed, reflecting the relatively stronger European wheat harvest.
We expect a recovery in oil prices, higher cost inflation and El Niño supply-side risks to lead to a recovery in wheat prices over the coming quarters. A lower EUR/USD would further support European wheat prices.
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