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Dow 20,000 Is Possible (This Year)

ByDragonfly Capital
AuthorGregory W. Harmon
Published 05/08/2013, 08:45 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing over the 15,000 mark for the first time ever, it begs the question, just how high can it go? This will not be a 200 page book on the subject using historical P/E ratios or other measures. A simple Harmonic pattern shows that a reasonable target is 16,810 and that 20,770 is within the realm of possiblility. Take a look.
The Dow
The move off of the March 2009 low to the peak at 12,876 in May 2011 took two years and two months. Using a simple AB = CD pattern applied to the Monthly chart of the Dow (US 30) gives initial target in December of 2013 to 16810, also a two-year and two-month run higher. But these patterns often extend by 127% or 161.8% of the initial leg. In that case the target could be as high as 18,540 or even 20,770 at year end. If you think that is crazy, then consider that the two peaks at that point could be part of a 3 Drives Pattern. This would give the corresponding targets in July 2016 of 19,854 on a straight AB=CD, 25,165 at a 127% extension and 33,400 at a 161.8% extension, assuming the same 20% pullback for 5 months as happened in May 2011 occurs following December 2013. One tool, one view.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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