The month of August has always been associated with the “summer doldrums” from when I first stepped into the world of Forex over 30 years ago. As regular as clockwork each year market volume subsides, the trading ranges tighten, and time appears to develop in slow motion. This year we’ve had more than one month of this type of trading already, and each time I think we can make a drive to resolution the market seems to slip down yet another gear and zooms into the “micro-waves” and stretches them longer.
However, overall the wave structures have held well … just slowly. I do feel that this coming week could reach a climax within the current moves in the Europeans. However, I’m not too convinced that it’ll seem that way. Rather, we could come to a resolution but then equally lethargic initial response. There are some good reasons to suggest this as the structures across the majors are not quite in correlation, and it would not surprise me to see some breaks of the extremes I expect this week.
The Aussie has also subsided into random oblivion, but within its own structure I suspect it will follow the Europeans still.
As for the JPY currency pairs I remain with a more bearish outlook. Today seems to be quite critical in terms of the balance in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. When considering the expectations in EUR/USD the cross holds some minor short term risk of additional highs above Friday’s and it looks like a fine line on any approach to the 130.72 high. Once this issue is resolved we should hopefully see the downside in both JPY pairs resume.
Take care with the Europeans – basically still dollar bearish while favour the downside in the JPY pairs.