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Disjointed Price Action Despite Draghi's German Euro Sales Pitch

Published 08/29/2012, 04:58 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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Limited movement initially in the markets in the morning as eyes are still on Jackson Hole and Bernanke's speech, however, as ever, Mario Draghi didn't disappoint, releasing an article in Die Zeit; the key piece from the article:

A new architecture for the euro area is desirable to create sustained prosperity for all euro area countries, and especially for Germany. The root of Germany’s success is its deep integration into the European and world economies. To continue to prosper, Germany needs to remain an anchor of a strong currency, at the centre of a zone of monetary stability and in a dynamic and competitive euro area economy. Only a stronger economic and monetary union can provide this.

Essentially Draghi selling the idea to the Germans that they may need to take some pain to save the overall value of the euro.

Overall this acted as a positive for the euro and therefore risk pairs, that said with focus on Jackson Hole, movements were limited and didn't last long (expect the same for the rest of the week), especially as coupled with the news on action we still have the underlying doom and gloom tone surrounding the various European issues (Spain dominating the headlines again).

The rest of the day saw some pretty choppy price action which was pretty disjointed from the usual risk-on/risk-off theme. Participants are prepping themselves for Jackson Hole and Bernanke's speech (which we think won't hint at QE soon - the US economy isn't in a horrific place and there will probably be some wait and see on Europe first); if the speech does go as we think we would expect to see some risk off trading; therefore we will look to close out any risk-on positions prior to this.

EUR/USD
Dropped lower today, but on very choppy trade. pair seemed to find a base at the 1.2525 level.
GBP/USD
Pushed slightly higher again in choppy trade; it did struggle to break the 1.5850 mark, we need to see this break before a push to test recent highs.

AUD/USD
Very little action again in the aussie, a failed run at the 1.04 mark put us back down to yesterday's support level.
USD/JPY
Pushed back up to the top of the range and bounced off. Unless you are a range trader, stay away from this pair until we get some proper movement again.

GBP/JPY
Trade pushed higher today, just escaping the T1 mark.
AUD/CAD
Remained pretty flat, with very little action. Counter trend pins tend not to have a long shelf life if they don't play out quickly therefore key to watch this one.

GBP/CAD
Played out better than the AUD/CAD (although we weren't keen on over extending our GBP exposure).

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