The main event this week is undoubtedly the US presidential election today.
As we wrote in our US election monitor, It's not over until the fat lady sings , 4 November 2016, it is much too early to rule out a Trump victory even if Sunday's FBI clearing of Hillary Clinton's use of private mails again has calmed markets (see below).
Both national polls and state polls suggest a very close race with Hillary Clinton still slightly ahead. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Trump has a 34% chance of winning the presidential election. While the Republicans seem likely to retain the majority in the House, it is going to be close who will win the Senate.
The closer the election is, the longer we will have to wait for a final result. Looking at the 2012 election, most media declared Obama the winner between 5:12-5:38 CET, which was around the time the results for Ohio and North Carolina were called. At this election it seems difficult for Donald Trump to win if he does not get Florida (poll closing time: 01.00 CET), Ohio (01.30 CET) and North Carolina (01.30 CET). Consequently, we will most likely know who the next president is before 06:00 CET but we cannot rule out a scenario where we do not know the final result before later. For a complete overview of the different poll closing times and a schedule for the 2012 result announcements, see US election monitor - Timetable of election night , 8 November 2016.
In 2012, the Senate was called to be Democratic at 5:43 CET. The House was called at 07:30 CET. This time, most of the key battlefields in the Senate are in states located in the mid and the east - hence, the result could be called a bit earlier in this election.For the market implications of the US election, see our Strategy piece from Friday.
In the UK, the NIESR GDP estimate for October is due. Historically, these estimates have been accurate projectors and will give further indications of how the economy performed at the beginning of Q4. In line with PMIs, we think the estimate will show that growth continued to be resilient to Brexit uncertainties. Prior to the NIESR release, we will receive more 'hard' evidence for Q3 in the form of industrial production figures for September.
In the euro area, we expect German industrial production (through monthly volatility) to mirror the solid signals for the manufacturing sector.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below