The main event today is the US jobs report for April. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 170,000 in April, a bit below consensus of 190,000 but in line with the employment growth in the ADP jobs report for April. We estimate the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% after the big fall to 4.5% in March. While we expect wage growth to fall to 2.6% y/y, consensus calls for an unchanged print at 2.7% y/y. For more, see US Labour Market Monitor: Labour market slowing but still tightening , 3 May.
After the quite dull FOMC meeting on Wednesday, it will be interesting to listen to the different views on the stance of monetary policy, as some Fed speeches are scheduled today.
Sunday sees the final round of the French presidential election. As opinion polls accurately predicted the first round result and have pointed consistently to an Emmanuel Macron win, markets have largely priced out any French election risk premium over recent weeks. As with the first round, the main TV and radio channels will release exit polls once voting stations close at 20:00 CEST on Sunday and will be watched closely by markets. For more details, see also French Election Monitor No. 4: Le Pens chances of winning presidency increasingly slim , 4 May.
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