Market Movers
The main event today will be the ECB meeting, see ECB preview . We do not expect any policy changes or new signals. Draghi is likely to continue to signal a firm commitment to continue the asset purchases until September 2016. Focus will be on a) the Greek situation, b) the frontloading of ECB purchases and how much flexibility there is in its purchases and c) a likely small lift to its inflation projection for 2015 following the rise in the oil price since the projections in March.
Final services PMI for the euro area will include data for Spain and Italy. The UK also releases services PMI, which is expected to be unchanged.
ADP employment numbers in the US will give more input to Friday's payrolls number. The ADP data only cover private payrolls and are expected to show a rise of 200,000 in May, up from 169,000 in April.
US ISM non-manufacturing is expected to show a small decline to 56.0 (consensus 57.0). However, it follows a decent rise in April to a pretty high level of 57.8 (long-term average is 54.0) and is still in line with growth above trend in the service sector.
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