Market Movers
Focus will again be on Greece and the emergency Eurogroup meeting this afternoon and the EU summit tonight (starts at 19:00 CET). We expect the Greek government and its creditor institutions to reach an agreement this week with German chancellor Angela Merkel playing a key role in bridging the current differences. For more see our research papers from last week Grexit - what if? Summer crunch time is near - but no solution this week and Strategy: The end game .
Euro-area consumer confidence has declined in recent months mainly on the back of a rebound in the oil price but the weaker sentiment may also reflect the uncertainty about Greece. We expect that confidence edged down a bit further in May from its still high level. US existing home sales should continue the underlying upward trend and increase 4.5%, which will leave the overall sales pace close to the peak of the current cycle but still below a reasonable longer-run level.
The main data releases during the rest of the week are US durable goods and PCE inflation, euro-area PMIs, German Ifo expectations, Chinese manufacturing PMI and Japanese inflation.
In Denmark the central bank will publish its Q2 monetary review and data on consumer confidence and retail sales are due for release, see page 2.
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