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Danske Daily: U.S. Inflation On Focus

ByDanske Markets
Published 07/16/2013, 07:20 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The U.S. figure is of particular interest ahead of Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to the Congress tomorrow. Last week's Fed minutes revealed that many participants 'worried about the low level of inflation', which suggested that inflation will also be an important determinant for Fed tapering. Bernanke's dovish comment last week also noted inflation; he said that low inflation and high unemployment signal that more Fed stimulus is needed. For CPI in June, consensus is for an increase to 1.6% y/y from 1.4% in May. U.K. and euro area inflation could also get attention after ECB introduced forward guidance, and the Bank of England seems to be moving towards it.

German ZEW economic sentiment is expected to increase, suggesting that things continue to improve in the euro area. Consensus is for an increase to 40 from 38.5, but the unchanged figure for Sentix expectations released last week indicates a smaller increase in our view.

In the U.S., the NAHB housing market index and industrial production could also attract market attention. In May, the housing market index rose to 52 and went above 50 for the first time since early 2006. For June, consensus is for a small setback but the index should remain above 50. Industrial production is expected to increase in line with the solid ISM report for July.

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