Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious Outperformance
Find Stocks Now

Daily Shot: China's Great Unwinding

Published 09/01/2015, 06:33 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Let's start with China where we continue to see more evidence of economic deceleration:
1. China's overall (composite) output entered contraction mode, dragged down by a sharp slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing Output PMI

2. Factory layoffs have been a particularly troublesome and persistent trend. This could further worsen social tensions in China as the number of protests/strikes increases.
Layoffs

3. The official manufacturing PMI (chart below) declined to a three-year low and now shows contraction (PMI < 50). This supports the data above.
manufacturing PMI

4. The Baidu SME sentiment index shows the nation's smaller firms remain under pressure.
Baidu SME sentiment index

5. Public firms' earnings are declining again (profits and EBITDA shown).
China A-share Earnings

6. Macau's GDP declined by 26% in a single quarter on the latest slowdown in gambling revenues.
Macau's GDP

7. The government is realising it botched the latest stock market bailout as the public loses confidence. Instead of buying more shares, the government has supposedly set out to find scapegoats to take the blame for the selloff.
SHCOMP

8. To make matters worse, there was another chemical facility explosion late Monday. While the direct impact of such events on the overall economy is minimal, it's the diminished confidence in the authorities that could become an issue.

Finally, S&P 500 futures are sharply lower in after-hours trading on China concerns.

S&P 500 Futures Chart
Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.