Dollar turned mix towards the end of the week but stays the third strongest major currency following Yen and Swiss Franc. Fed chair Janet Yellen said yesterday that "we are comi9ng close to our assigned congressional goal of maximum employment." And economic data "really suggest a labor market that is vastly improved." But the higher than expected underemployment rate showed there is still some "slack". San Francisco Fed president John Williams said that two rate hike this year is the "right course" if the economy continues to improve.
Overall, yen remains the strongest major currency this week and that can also be reflected in commodity yen crosses. AUD/JPY's fall from 86.69 accelerates to as low as 80.67 so far. We maintain our view that rebound from 77.58 is completed at 86.69 already. And outlook stays bearish with the cross staying inside medium term falling channel. The current fall could be extending the decline from 102.83 and would target a test on 77.58 support first. Break will confirm and target next key level at 74.55. We'll maintain this bearish view as long as 83.72 resistance holds.
CAD/JPY's fall from from 87.44 also extends lower to as low as 81.69 so far. The consolidation pattern from 78.93 should have completed at 87.44 and the larger down trend from 106.48 is likely resuming. Deeper decline should be seen to 78.93 lower first. Break will confirm this bearish case and would target next key support level at 72.13. We will maintain this bearish view as long as 84.25 resistance holds.
On the data front, Japan current account surplus widened to JPY 1.73T in February. Consumer confidence and Eco Watchers survey will be released from Japan too. Swiss will release unemployment rate and CPI. UK will release productions. Main focus would be on Canada employment today.